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The deindustrialisation/tertiarisation hypothesis reconsidered: a subsystem application to the OECD7

  • S. Montresor
  • G. Vittucci Marzetti

The diffusion of outsourcing, both national and international, and vertical FDIs among manufacturing firms, along with the higher integration of business services in manufacturing, has recently led to question the empirical evidence supporting the Deindustrialisation/Tertiarisation (DT) hypothesis. Rather than a \real" phenomenon, it has been argued, DT would be an \apparent" one, mainly due to the reorganization of production across national and sectoral boundaries. The empirical studies that have dealt with the topic so far have not been able to effectively rule out such possibility, because of two main limitations: the sectoral level of the analysis and/or the national focus. In order to overcome them, the paper carries out an appreciative investigation of the actual extent of the DT occurred in the OECD area over the '80s and the '90s by moving from a sector to a subsystem perspective, thus retaining both direct and indirect relations, and by referring to a \pseudo-World" of 7 OECD countries, thus taking into account the \global" dimension of the phenomenon. The results strongly support the DT hypothesis: although the weight of business sector services in the manufacturing subsystem increased, acting as a counterbalancing tendency to the manufacturing decline, subsystem shares signi cantly decreased, thus confirming DT as a more fundamental trend of modern economies.

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Paper provided by Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna in its series Working Papers with number 622.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:622
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  1. Montresor Sandro & Vittucci Marzetti Giuseppe, 2007. "Outsourcing and Structural Change: What Can Input-Output Analysis Say About It?," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 43-78.
  2. Victor R. Fuchs, 1964. "Productivity Trends in the Goods and Service Sectors, 1929–61: A Preliminary Survey," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fuch64-1.
  3. G. Vittucci Marzetti, 2008. "Input-output data and service outsourcing. A reply to Dietrich, McCarthy and Anagnostou," Working Papers 621, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  4. Postner, Harry H, 1990. "The Contracting-Out Problem in Service Sector Analysis: Choice of Statistical Unit," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 36(2), pages 177-86, June.
  5. W. W. Rostow, 1959. "The Stages Of Economic Growth," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, 08.
  6. Roberto Scazzieri, 1990. "Vertical Integration in Economic Theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 13(1), pages 20-46, October.
  7. Barbara J. Spencer, 2005. "International Outsourcing and Incomplete Contracts," NBER Working Papers 11418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Wolff, Edward N., 1984. "Industrial Composition, Interindustry Effects, and the US Productivity Slowdown," Working Papers 84-09, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  9. Victor R. Fuchs, 1965. "The Growing Importance of the Service Industries," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38, pages 344.
  10. Ramana Ramaswamy & Bob Rowthorn, 1997. "Deindustrialization; Causes and Implications," IMF Working Papers 97/42, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Oscar De Juan & Eladio Febrero, 2000. "Measuring Productivity from Vertically Integrated Sectors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 65-82.
  12. McCarthy, Ian & Anagnostou, Angela, 2004. "The impact of outsourcing on the transaction costs and boundaries of manufacturing," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 61-71, March.
  13. Michael Dietrich, 1999. "Explaining Economic Restructuring: An input-output analysis of organisational change in the European Union," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 219-240.
  14. Schettkat, Ronald & Yocarini, Lara, 2006. "The shift to services employment: A review of the literature," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 127-147, June.
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