IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Testing the stability of implied probability density functions

  • Robert R Bliss
  • Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou
Registered author(s):

    Implied probability density functions (PDFs) estimated from cross-sections of observed option prices are gaining increasing attention amongst academics and practitioners. To date, however, little attention has been paid to the robustness of these estimates or to the confidence that users can place in the summary statistics (for example the skewness or the 99th percentile) derived from fitted PDFs. This paper begins to address these questions by examining the absolute and relative robustness of two of the most common methods for estimating implied PDFs - the double-lognormal approximating function and the smoothed implied volatility smile methods. The changes resulting from randomly perturbing quoted prices by no more than a half tick provide a lower bound on the confidence intervals of the summary statistics derived from the estimated PDFs. Tests are conducted using options contracts tied to short sterling futures and the FTSE 100 index - both trading on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange. The tests show that the smoothed implied volatility smile method dominates the double-lognormal as a technique for estimating implied PDFs when average goodness-of-fits for both methods are comparable.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2000/wp114.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 114.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: May 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:114
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
    Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
    Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
    Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1996. "New Techniques to Extract Market expectations from Financial Instruments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 142, Stockholm School of Economics.
    2. Mc Manus, Des, 1999. "The Information Content of Interest Rate Futures Options," Working Papers 99-15, Bank of Canada.
    3. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Information Content of Implied Probability Distributions: Empirical Studies of Japanese Stock Price Index Options," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(3), pages 143-170, November.
    4. Dilip B. Madan & Frank Milne, 1992. "Contingent Claims Valued and Hedged by Pricing and Investment in a Basis," Working Papers 868, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    5. Peter A. Abken & Dilip B. Madan & Sailesh Ramamurtie, 1996. "Estimation of risk-neutral and statistical densities by Hermite polynomial approximation: with an application to Eurodollar futures options," Working Paper 96-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    6. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
    7. Jose M. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & Robert L. Reider, 1997. "Implied Exchange Rate Distributions: Evidence from OTC Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 6179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
    9. Söderlind, Paul, 1997. "Market Expectations in the UK Before and After the ERM Crisis," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 210, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Sep 1998.
    10. Bhupinder Bahra, 1997. "Implied risk-neutral probability density functions from option prices: theory and application," Bank of England working papers 66, Bank of England.
    11. Allan M. Malz, 1997. "Option-implied probability distributions and currency excess returns," Staff Reports 32, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Malz, Allan M., 1996. "Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: the case of sterling-mark," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 717-748, October.
    13. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 499-547, 04.
    14. Coutant, Sophie, 1999. "Implied risk aversion in option prices using Hermite polynomials," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/9842, Paris Dauphine University.
    15. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    16. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
    17. Dilip B. Madan & Frank Milne, 1994. "Contingent Claims Valued And Hedged By Pricing And Investing In A Basis," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 223-245.
    18. Buchen, Peter W. & Kelly, Michael, 1996. "The Maximum Entropy Distribution of an Asset Inferred from Option Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 143-159, March.
    19. Daniel F. Waggoner, 1997. "Spline methods for extracting interest rate curves from coupon bond prices," Working Paper 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    20. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
    21. Michael P. Leahy & Charles P. Thomas, 1996. "The sovereignty option: the Quebec referendum and market views on the Canadian dollar," International Finance Discussion Papers 555, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. María C. Manzano & Isabel Sánchez, 1998. "Indicators of Short-Term Interest Rate Expectations. The Information Contained in the Options Market," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9816, Banco de Espa�a.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Team)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.