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Indicators of Short-Term Interest Rate Expectations. The Information Contained in the Options Market

Author

Listed:
  • María C. Manzano
  • Isabel Sánchez

Abstract

This paper has estimated, using a non-parametric method, the distribution function of expected three-month interbank rates, using data on call options on the MIBOR-90 future. The evolution over time of this distribution function has enabled the effects of movements in the Banco de España intervention rates on the distribution of agents' short-run interest rate expectations to be assessed.

Suggested Citation

  • María C. Manzano & Isabel Sánchez, 1998. "Indicators of Short-Term Interest Rate Expectations. The Information Contained in the Options Market," Working Papers 9816, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:9816
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December.
    2. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Martin S. Feldstein, 1999. "Capital Income Taxes and the Benefit of Price Stability," NBER Chapters,in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 9-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "Adoption of financial technologies: Implications for money demand and monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 134, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    5. Martin S. Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Chapters,in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 123-166 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. José Manuel González-Páramo, 1991. "Imposición personal e incentivos fiscales al ahorro en España," Estudios Económicos, Banco de España;Estudios Económicos Homepage, number 46.
    7. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor, 2001. "Does inflation matter for growth?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 405-428, December.
    8. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    9. Ballard, Charles L & Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1985. "General Equilibrium Computations of the Marginal Welfare Costs of Taxes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 128-138, March.
    10. Timothy Kehoe & Antonio Manresa & Clemente Polo & Ferrán Sancho, 1989. "Un análisis de equilibrio general de la reforma fiscal de 1986 en España," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 13(3), pages 337-385, September.
    11. Manuel Jaen & Agustin Molina, 1994. "Un análisis empírico de la tenencia y demanda de vivienda en Andalucía," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 18(1), pages 143-164, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert R Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2000. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Bank of England working papers 114, Bank of England.
    2. Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
    3. Francisco Alonso & Roberto Blanco & Gonzalo Rubio, 2005. "Testing the forecasting performace of IBEX 35 option implied risk neutral densities," Working Papers 0504, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    4. Ruijun Bu & Kaddour Hadri, 2005. "Estimating the Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Natural Spline versus Hypergeometric Approach Using European Style Options," Research Papers 200510, University of Liverpool Management School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    INTEREST RATE ; INFORMATION ; EXPECTATIONS;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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