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The Information Content of Interest Rate Futures Options

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  • Mc Manus, Des

Abstract

Options prices are being increasingly employed to extract market expectations and views about monetary policy. In this paper, eurodollar options are monitored to examine the evolution of market sentiment over the possible future values of eurodollar rates. Risk-neutral probability functions are employed to synopsize the information contained in the prices of euro/dollar futures options. Several common methods of estimating risk-neutral probability density functions are examined. A method based on a mixture of lognormals density is found to rank first and a method based on a Hermite polynomial approximation is found to rank second. Several standard summary statistics are also examined, namely volatility, skewness, and kurtosis. The volatility measure is fairly robust across methods, while the skewness and kurtosis measure are model-sensitive. As an example, the days surrounding the September 1998 Federal Open Market Committee are examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Mc Manus, Des, 1999. "The Information Content of Interest Rate Futures Options," Staff Working Papers 99-15, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:99-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Mandler, 2002. "Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices: Two Case Studies in Market Perceptions of the ECB's Monetary Policy 1999/2000," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(II), pages 165-189, June.
    2. Steven A. Weinberg, 2001. "Interpreting the volatility smile: an examination of the information content of option prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 706, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Robert R Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2000. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Bank of England working papers 114, Bank of England.
    4. Marian Micu, 2005. "Extracting expectations from currency option prices: a comparison of methods," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 226, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Gustavo Abarca & José Gonzalo Rangel & Guillermo Benavides, 2010. "Exchange Rate Market Expectations and Central Bank Policy: The case of the Mexican Peso-US Dollar from 2005-2009," Working Papers 2010-17, Banco de México.
    6. Marie Briere, 2006. "Market Reactions to Central Bank Communication Policies :Reading Interest Rate Options Smiles," Working Papers CEB 38, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Ruijun Bu & Kaddour Hadri, 2005. "Estimating the Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Natural Spline versus Hypergeometric Approach Using European Style Options," Research Papers 200510, University of Liverpool Management School.
    8. Marie Brière & Kamal Chancari, 2004. "Perception des risques sur les marchés, construction d'un indice élaboré à partir des smiles d'options et test de stratégies," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 114(4), pages 527-555.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; Interest rates;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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