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The Estimation of Risk Premium Implicit in Oil Prices

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  • Jorge Barros Luís

Abstract

Futures prices can be seen as a sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price with a risk premium. In order to disentangle those two components of the futures prices, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively from option and spot prices observed. Looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate Light/Sweet Crude Oil options, evidence obtained suggests that the risk premium is typically very low for levels near the futures prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Barros Luís, 2000. "The Estimation of Risk Premium Implicit in Oil Prices," Working Papers w200002, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    2. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-451.
    3. Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 1996. "Uncertainty and the price for crude oil reserves," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1655, The World Bank.
    4. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
    5. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
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    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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