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Granular banking flows and exchange-rate dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Balduin Bippus

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Simon Lloyd

    (Bank of England)

  • Daniel Ostry

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Using data on the external assets and liabilities of global banks based in the UK, the world’s largest centre for international banking, we identify exogenous cross-border banking flows by constructing novel granular instrumental variables. In line with the predictions of a new granular international banking model, we show empirically that cross-border flows have a significant causal impact on exchange rates. A 1% increase in UK-based global banks’ net external US dollar-debt position appreciates the dollar by 2% against sterling. While we estimate that the supply of dollars from abroad is price-elastic, our results suggest that UK-resident global banks’ demand for dollars is price-inelastic. Furthermore, we show that the causal effect of banking flows on exchange rates is state dependent, with effects twice as large when banks’ capital ratios are one standard deviation below average. Our findings showcase the importance of banks’ risk-bearing capacity for exchange-rate dynamics and, therefore, for insulating their domestic economies from global financial shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Balduin Bippus & Simon Lloyd & Daniel Ostry, 2023. "Granular banking flows and exchange-rate dynamics," Bank of England working papers 1043, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:1043
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kollmann, Robert, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of nominal exchange rate regimes: new insights into the role of price dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 275-292, March.
    2. Ostry, D. A., 2023. "Tails of Foreign Exchange-at-Risk (FEaR)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2343, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 126-133, May.
    4. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
    6. Matthieu Bussière & Robert Hills & Simon Lloyd & Baptiste Meunier & Justine Pedrono & Dennis Reinhardt & Rhiannon Sowerbutts, 2020. "Le Pont de Londres: interactions between monetary and prudential policies in cross-border lending," Bank of England working papers 850, Bank of England.
    7. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2019. "A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1475-1515.
    8. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
    9. Matthieu Bussière & Robert Hills & Simon Lloyd & Baptiste Meunier & Justine Pedrono & Dennis Reinhardt & Rhiannon Sowerbutts, 2021. "Le Pont de Londres: Interactions between monetary and prudential policies in cross‐border lending," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 61-86, February.
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    2. Jonas Becker & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2024. "Global Bank Lending and Exchange Rates," BIS Working Papers 1161, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; exchange rates; financial frictions; granular instrumental variables; international b;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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