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Threat of a Capital Levy, Expected Devaluation and Interest Rates in France during the Interwar Period

  • Hautcoeur, P-C.
  • Sicsic, P.

This paper tries to improve the understanding of the French interwar monetary situation by using thoroughly one indicator: long-term interest rates. As such, it could be attacked from a methodological point of view as relying excessively on that indicator and on a small number of hypothesis (although we have empirical arguments for each of these). We do consider that if each one of our hypothesis (and then our measures) may be discussed, the global picture we draw is the only one which puts all the available data in a consistent order. This picture is different from the prevailing one in some aspects concerning the Poincaré stabilization, and reinforces one of the interpretations of the 1930s.

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File URL: http://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfdocumentstravail/ner50.pdf
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Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 50.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:50
Contact details of provider: Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/

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  1. Sicsic, Pierre, 1992. "Was the franc poincare deliberately undervalued?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 69-92, January.
  2. Prati, Alessandro, 1991. "Poincare's stabilization : Stopping a run on government debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 213-239, April.
  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1987. "The Case of the Negative Nominal Interest Rates: New Estimates of the Term Structure of Interest Rates During the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 2472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Baum, Christopher F & Thies, Clifford F, 1992. "On the Construction of Monthly Term Structures of U.S. Interest Rates, 1919-1930," Computer Science in Economics & Management, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 5(3), pages 221-46, August.
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