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Ley de Zipf y de Gibrat para Colombia y sus regiones: 1835-2005

Author

Listed:
  • Gerson Javier Pérez V
  • Adolfo Meisel Roca

Abstract

En este documento se estudia la dinámica de la jerarquía urbana a nivel nacional y regional en Colombia utilizando evidencia empírica basada en la información censal entre 1835 y 2005. Este trabajo se enfoca en tres asuntos: 1. el análisis de la distribución del tamaño poblacional a través de las regularidades empíricas de Zipf y de Gibrat; 2. el cambio temporal en el modelo de crecimiento poblacional a nivel nacional y regional; y 3. la validación empírica del planteamiento teórico de Gabaix (1999b) sobre la coincidencia de la dinámica poblacional en un país y sus regiones. Haciendo uso de la relación rango-tamaño ajustadas (Gabaix-Ibragimov, 2011) y de técnicas no-paramétricas, se encuentra coincidencia a partir de 1964, a nivel nacional y por regiones, en el cumplimiento de la Ley de Zipf y parcialmente de la Ley de Gibrat. Estos resultados muestran un cambio en el modelo de crecimiento poblacional a partir de la segunda mitad del siglo XX. A través del uso de matrices de transición se encontró que, mientras que las ciudades grandes y pequeñas tienen una alta probabilidad de seguir con el mismo tamaño en el futuro, las ciudades medias tienen una mayor probabilidad de reducir su tamaño relativo.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerson Javier Pérez V & Adolfo Meisel Roca, 2013. "Ley de Zipf y de Gibrat para Colombia y sus regiones: 1835-2005," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 192, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:region:192
    DOI: 10.32468/dtseru.192
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    distribución del tamaño poblacional; Ley de Zipf; Ley de Gibrat.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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