IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/192.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Banking Productivity and Economic Fluctuations: Colombia 1998-2000

Author

Listed:
  • Andrés F. Arias

Abstract

I build a general equilibrium financial accelerator model that incorporates an explicit technology for the intermediary sector. A credit multiplier emerges because of a borrowing constraint that is a function of asset prices, internal funds and lending rates. With this financial friction I show that small changes in the productivity and intermediation costs of banks generate large and persistent fluctuations in economy activity. The transmission channel relies on the role that assets and internal funds play as collateral. After a negative shock hits financial intermediation productivity, the resulting credit crunch and economic slowdown induce a fall in asset prices and internal fund accumulation. This further modifies the present and future volume of collateral, thereby amplifying and propagating the initial shock. I argue that changes in banking regulation in Colombia in the late 1990's increased intermediation costs, reduced banking productivity and induced a credit channel story that fits the theoretical model presented here.This new regulation enhanced the credit crunch and economic slowdown that was already underway. Colombian data on loan/deposit interest rate spreads, credit volume, asset prices and economy activity support this argument.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés F. Arias, 2001. "Banking Productivity and Economic Fluctuations: Colombia 1998-2000," Borradores de Economia 192, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:192
    DOI: 10.32468/be.192
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.192
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May.
    3. Allen N. Berger & Loretta J. Mester, 1999. "What explains the dramatic changes in cost and profit performance of the U.S. banking industry?," Working Papers 99-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    5. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    6. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 1999. "Capital Markets and the Instability of Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Re-Examining the Contributions of Money and Banking Shocks to the U.S. Great Depression," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 183-260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Andrés Felipe Arias, 2000. "The Colombian Banking Crisis: Macroeconomic Consequences And What To Expect," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003573, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    9. Diaz-Gimenez, Javier & Prescott, Edward C. & Fitzgerald, Terry & Alvarez, Fernando, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 533-559.
    10. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
    11. Bruce D. Smith & John H. Boyd, 1998. "The evolution of debt and equity markets in economic development," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 12(3), pages 519-560.
    12. Thomas Cooley & Ramon Marimon & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2004. "Aggregate Consequences of Limited Contract Enforceability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 817-847, August.
    13. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1998. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," Working papers 98-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    14. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1993. "Explaining financial market facts: the importance of incomplete markets and transaction costs," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 17(Win), pages 17-31.
    15. Bhattacharyya, Arunava & Lovell, C. A. K. & Sahay, Pankaj, 1997. "The impact of liberalization on the productive efficiency of Indian commercial banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 332-345, April.
    16. Leightner, Jonathan E. & Lovell, C. A. Knox, 1998. "The Impact of Financial Liberalization on the Performance of Thai Banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 115-131, March.
    17. Thomas Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2006. "Monetary policy and the financial decisions of firms," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 243-270, January.
    18. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114.
    19. Gilbert, R. Alton & Wilson, Paul W., 1998. "Effects of Deregulation on the Productivity of Korean Banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 133-155, March.
    20. Joydeep Bhattacharya & Mark G. Guzman & Elisabeth Huybens & Bruce D. Smith, 1995. "Monetary, Fiscal, and Bank Regulatory Policy in a Simple Monetary Growth Model," Working Papers 9501, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    21. Kumbhakar, Subal C, et al, 2001. "The Effects of Deregulation on the Performance of Financial Institutions: The Case of Spanish Savings Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 101-120, February.
    22. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    23. Kaminsky, Graciela L & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1998. "Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 444-448, May.
    24. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
    25. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 883-913.
    26. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    27. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    28. V. V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 1995. "The growth effects of monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 19(Fall), pages 18-32.
    29. Galor, Oded, 1992. "A Two-Sector Overlapping-Generations Model: A Global Characterization of the Dynamical System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1351-1386, November.
    30. Allen N. Berger & David B. Humphrey, 1992. "Measurement and Efficiency Issues in Commercial Banking," NBER Chapters, in: Output Measurement in the Service Sectors, pages 245-300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises; The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 1999/178, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Berg, Sigbjorn Atle & Forsund, Finn R. & Hjalmarsson, Lennart & Suominen, Matti, 1993. "Banking efficiency in the Nordic countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2-3), pages 371-388, April.
    33. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    34. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    35. repec:idb:wpaper:321 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Christina D. Romer, 1993. "The Nation in Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 19-39, Spring.
    37. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    38. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Sum), pages 2-10.
    39. Osman Zaim, 1995. "The Effect of Financial Liberalizationon the Efficiency of Turkish Commercial Banks," Working Papers 9505, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    40. David Humphrey, 1993. "Cost and technical change: Effects from bank deregulation," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 9-34, June.
    41. David B. Humphrey, 1991. "Productivity in banking and effects from deregulation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 77(Mar), pages 16-28.
    42. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-380, June.
    43. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    45. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises; Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 1997/106, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Scheinkman, Jose A & Weiss, Laurence, 1986. "Borrowing Constraints and Aggregate Economic Activity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 23-45, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrés Felipe Arias, 2001. "Banking Productivity And Economic Fluctuations: Colombia 1998-2000," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002050, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. Andrés Arias, 2003. "U.S. Business Cycle Volatility And Banking Productivity," Documentos CEDE 003668, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    3. Andrés Felipe Arias, 2000. "The Colombian Banking and Crisis: Macroeconomic Consequences and What to Expect," Borradores de Economia 157, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Andrés Felipe Arias, 2000. "The Colombian Banking Crisis: Macroeconomic Consequences And What To Expect," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003573, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Arias Andrés, 2002. "Banking Productivity and Economic Fluctuations: Colombia 1998-2000," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE, March.
    6. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 295-330, March.
    7. Menzie D. Chinn & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1999. "International capital inflows, domestic financial intermediation and financial crises under imperfect information," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, June.
    9. Lorenzoni, Guido, 2014. "International Financial Crises," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 689-740, Elsevier.
    10. Kenneth Kletzer & Robert Dekle, 2001. "Domestic Bank Regulation and Financial Crises; Theory and Empirical Evidence From East Asia," IMF Working Papers 2001/063, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    12. Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset Prices and Banking Distress: A Macroeconomic Approach," Finance 0411034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Robert Dekle & Kenneth Kletzer, 2002. "Domestic Bank Regulation and Financial Crises: Theory and Empirical Evidence from East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 507-558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Choi, Woon Gyu & Cook, David, 2004. "Liability dollarization and the bank balance sheet channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 247-275, December.
    15. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
    16. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    17. Beck, T.H.L., 2011. "The Role of Finance in Economic Development : Benefits, Risks, and Politics," Discussion Paper 2011-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    18. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    19. Cristiano Cantore & Mathan Satchi, 2009. "Credit Supply and Output Volatility," Studies in Economics 0904, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    20. Dorofeenko, Viktor & Lee, Gabriel S. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2005. "Agency Costs and Investment Behavior," Economics Series 182, Institute for Advanced Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial accelerator; banking productivity; intermediation costs; borrowing limit; credit crunch; amplification; propagation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.