IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdp/wpaper/2015010.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Getting the Poor to Work: Three Welfare Increasing Reforms for a Busy Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Robin Jessen

    (Freie Universitaet Berlin)

  • David Rostam-Afschar

    (Freie Universitaet Berlin)

  • Viktor Steiner

    (Freie Universitaet Berlin)

Abstract

We study three budget-neutral reforms of the German tax and transfer system designed to improve work incentives for people with low incomes: a feasible flat tax reform that provides a basic income which is equal to the current level of the means tested unemployment benefit, and two alternative reforms that involve employment subsidies to stimulate participation and full-time work, respectively. We estimate labor supply reactions and welfare effects using a microsimulation model based on household data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and a structural labor supply model. We find that all three reforms increase labor supply in the first decile of the income distribution. However, the flat tax scenario reduces overall labor supply by 4.9%, the reform scenario designed to increase participation reduces labor supply by 1%, while the reform that provides improved incentives to work full-time has negligible effects on overall labor supply. With equal welfare weights, aggregate welfare gains are realizable under all three reforms. Creation Date: 2015-07-20

Suggested Citation

  • Robin Jessen & David Rostam-Afschar & Viktor Steiner, "undated". "Getting the Poor to Work: Three Welfare Increasing Reforms for a Busy Germany," BDPEMS Working Papers 2015010, Berlin School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdp:wpaper:2015010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.berlinschoolofeconomics.de/bdp/wpaper/pdf/WP_2015-10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bartels, Charlotte & Pestel, Nico, 2015. "The impact of short- and long-term participation tax rates on labor supply," Discussion Papers 2015/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & Jonathan Shaw, 2016. "Female Labor Supply, Human Capital, and Welfare Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1705-1753, September.
    3. Horstschräer, Julia & Clauss, Markus & Schnabel, Reinhold, 2010. "An unconditional basic income in the family context: Labor supply and distributional effects," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-091, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Robin Jessen & Davud Rostam-Afschar & Viktor Steiner, 2017. "Getting the Poor to Work: Three Welfare-Increasing Reforms for a Busy Germany," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(1), pages 1-41, March.
    5. Viktor Steiner & Katharina Wrohlich & Peter Haan & Johannes Geyer, 2012. "Documentation of the Tax-Benefit Microsimulation Model STSM: Version 2012," Data Documentation 63, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. repec:bla:scandj:v:97:y:1995:i:4:p:635-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Olivier Bargain & Marco Caliendo & Peter Haan & Kristian Orsini, 2010. "“Making work pay” in a rationed labor market," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 323-351, January.
    8. Richard Blundell & Andrew Shephard, 2012. "Employment, Hours of Work and the Optimal Taxation of Low-Income Families," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(2), pages 481-510.
    9. Wolfgang Franz & Nicole Guertzgen & Stefanie Schubert & Markus Clauss, 2012. "Assessing the employment effects of the German welfare reform -- an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(19), pages 2403-2421, July.
    10. Bartels, Charlotte, 2012. "Long-term participation tax rates," Discussion Papers 2012/20, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Friedman, Milton, 2002. "Capitalism and Freedom," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226264202.
    12. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    13. Colombino Ugo & Narazani Edlira, 2013. "Designing a Universal Income Support Mechanism for Italy: An Exploratory Tour," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, July.
    14. Colombino Ugo & Locatelli Marilena & Narazani Edlira & O'Donoghue Cathal, 2010. "Alternative Basic Income Mechanisms: An Evaluation Exercise With a Microeconometric Model," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, September.
    15. Herwig Immervoll & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez, 2007. "Welfare reform in European countries: a microsimulation analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 1-44, January.
    16. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 697-734, December.
    17. Michael Keane & Richard Rogerson, 2015. "Reconciling Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: A Structural Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 89-117, August.
    18. Ugo Colombino, 2009. "Evaluating Alternative Basic Income Mechanisms. A Simulation for European Countries," Discussion Papers 578, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    19. Hohenleitner, Ingrid & Straubhaar, Thomas, 2008. "Bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen und Solidarisches Bürgergeld - mehr als sozialutopische Konzepte," Edition HWWI: Chapters, in: Straubhaar, Thomas (ed.), Bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen und Solidarisches Bürgergeld - mehr als sozialutopische Konzepte, volume 1, pages 9-127, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    20. V. Joseph Hotz, 2003. "The Earned Income Tax Credit," NBER Chapters, in: Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, pages 141-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Robin Jessen & Davud Rostam-Afschar & Viktor Steiner, 2017. "Getting the Poor to Work: Three Welfare-Increasing Reforms for a Busy Germany," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(1), pages 1-41, March.
    22. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    23. Friedman, Milton, 2002. "Capitalism and Freedom," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226264219, Febrero.
    24. David Prescott & Robert Swidinsky & David A. Wilton, 1986. "Labour Supply Estimates for Low-Income Female Heads of Household Using Mincome Data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 134-141, February.
    25. Arthur van Soest, 1995. "Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 63-88.
    26. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2008. "Is a flat tax reform feasible in a grown-up democracy of Western Europe? A simulation study for Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(5), pages 620-636, October.
    27. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moff03-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frank M. Fossen & Ray Rees & Davud Rostam-Afschar & Viktor Steiner, 2020. "The effects of income taxation on entrepreneurial investment: A puzzle?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(6), pages 1321-1363, December.
    2. Fischer, Benjamin & Jessen, Robin & Steiner, Viktor, 2019. "Work incentives and the cost of redistribution via tax-transfer reforms under constrained labor supply," Discussion Papers 2019/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2018. "Structural Labour Supply Models and Microsimulation," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 162-197.
    4. Robin Jessen, 2019. "Why has Income Inequality in Germany Increased From 2002 to 2011? A Behavioral Microsimulation Decomposition," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(3), pages 540-560, September.
    5. Islam, Nizamul & Colombino, Ugo, 2018. "The case for NIT+FT in Europe. An empirical optimal taxation exercise," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 38-69.
    6. Fossen, Frank M. & Rees, Ray & Rostam-Afschar, Davud & Steiner, Viktor, 2017. "How do entrepreneurial portfolios respond to income taxation?," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 12-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    7. Robin Jessen & Davud Rostam-Afschar & Viktor Steiner, 2017. "Getting the Poor to Work: Three Welfare-Increasing Reforms for a Busy Germany," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(1), pages 1-41, March.
    8. Robin Jessen & Maria Metzing & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2017. "Optimal Taxation under Different Concepts of Justness," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 953, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    9. Robin Jessen & Davud Rostam-Afschar & Sebastian Schmitz, 2018. "How important is precautionary labour supply?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 868-891.
    10. Maximilian Joseph Blömer & Andreas Peichl, 2021. "Microsimulation of Different Variants of an Unconditional Basic Income in Germany," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 121, September.
    11. Yingying Lu & Yixiao Zhou, 2021. "A review on the economics of artificial intelligence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1045-1072, September.
    12. Schröder, Carsten & König, Johannes & Fedorets, Alexandra & Goebel, Jan & Grabka, Markus M. & Lüthen, Holger & Metzing, Maria & Schikora, Felicitas & Liebig, Stefan, 2020. "The economic research potentials of the German Socio-Economic Panel study," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 335-371.
    13. Fischer, Benjamin & Jessen, Robin & Steiner, Viktor, 2019. "Work incentives and the efficiency of tax-transfer reforms under constrained labor supply," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203607, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Spermann Alexander, 2017. "Basic Income in Germany: Proposals for Randomised Controlled Trials using Nudges," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-9, December.
    15. Palermo Kuss, Ana Helena, 2019. "Testing preferences for basic income," The Constitutional Economics Network Working Papers 01-2019, University of Freiburg, Department of Economic Policy and Constitutional Economic Theory.
    16. Enrico Cristofoletti, 2021. "A Stata package for the estimation of the dose-response function when the treatment is multidimensional," DEM Working Papers 2021/07, Department of Economics and Management.
    17. Robin Jessen & Davud Rostam-Afschar & Sebastian Schmitz, 2018. "How important is precautionary labour supply?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 868-891.
    18. Frank Fossen & Ray Rees & Davud Rostam-Afschar & Viktor Steiner, 2017. "How Do Entrepreneurial Portfolios Respond to Taxation?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6558, CESifo.
    19. Raddatz, Guido, 2019. "Das bedingungslose Grundeinkommen – ein Luftschloss," Zeitthemen 02, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    20. Palermo Kuss Ana Helena & Neumärker K. J. Bernhard, 2018. "Modelling the Time Allocation Effects of Basic Income," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-15, December.
    21. Piotr Misztal, 2018. "Universal basic income. Theory and practice," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 19(1), pages 103-116.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fischer, Benjamin & Jessen, Robin & Steiner, Viktor, 2019. "Work incentives and the cost of redistribution via tax-transfer reforms under constrained labor supply," Discussion Papers 2019/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Olivier Bargain & Mathias Dolls & Dirk Neumann & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2011. "Tax-Benefit Systems in Europe and the US: Between Equity and Efficiency," CESifo Working Paper Series 3534, CESifo.
    3. Fischer, Benjamin & Jessen, Robin & Steiner, Viktor, 2019. "Work incentives and the efficiency of tax-transfer reforms under constrained labor supply," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203607, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Löffler, Max & Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Siegloch, Sebastian & Sommer, Eric, 2014. "Documentation IZA?MOD v3.0: The IZA Policy Simulation Model," IZA Discussion Papers 8553, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Luis Ayala & Milagros Paniagua, 2019. "The impact of tax benefits on female labor supply and income distribution in Spain," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 1025-1048, September.
    7. de Boer, Henk-Wim & Jongen, Egbert L. W., 2020. "Analysing Tax-Benefit Reforms in the Netherlands: Using Structural Models and Natural Experiments," IZA Discussion Papers 12892, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2012. "Accounting for labor demand effects in structural labor supply models," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 129-138.
    9. Robin Jessen & Maria Metzing & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2017. "Optimal Taxation under Different Concepts of Justness," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 953, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    10. André Decoster & Peter Haan, 2015. "Empirical welfare analysis with preference heterogeneity," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 224-251, April.
    11. Peichl, Andreas & Schneider, Hilmar & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2010. "Documentation IZA?MOD: The IZA Policy SImulation MODel," IZA Discussion Papers 4865, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Kabátek, Jan, 2015. "Essays on public policy and household decision making," Other publications TiSEM 8cdb178e-ad98-42e5-a7e1-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Naveen Singhal, 2021. "Discrete Choice Models for Estimating Labor Supply: Working Paper 2021-04," Working Papers 57027, Congressional Budget Office.
    14. Robin Jessen, 2019. "Why has Income Inequality in Germany Increased From 2002 to 2011? A Behavioral Microsimulation Decomposition," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(3), pages 540-560, September.
    15. Buhlmann, Florian & Hebsaker, Michael & Kreuz, Tobias & Schmidhäuser, Jakob & Siegloch, Sebastian & Stichnoth, Holger, 2022. "ZEW-EviSTA: A microsimulation model of the German tax and transfer system," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-026, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2014. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the United States: New Results," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(3), pages 723-838.
    17. Nicolas Hérault & Guyonne Kalb, 2022. "Understanding the rising trend in female labour force participation," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 341-363, December.
    18. Islam, Nizamul & Colombino, Ugo, 2018. "The case for NIT+FT in Europe. An empirical optimal taxation exercise," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 38-69.
    19. Bargain, Olivier B. & Orsini, Kristian & Peichl, Andreas, 2011. "Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US," IZA Discussion Papers 5820, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Henk-Wim de Boer, 2015. "A structural analysis of labour supply and involuntary unemployment in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 312.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flat Tax Basic Income Work Incentives Poverty Microsimulation;

    JEL classification:

    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdp:wpaper:2015010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Reiter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpemde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.