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Le rimesse dei lavoratori emigrati e le crisi di conto corrente

  • Matteo Bugamelli

    ()

    (Banca d�Italia)

  • Francesco Patern�

    ()

    (Banca d�Italia)

This paper combines the literature on financial crises with that on international immigrations by investigating whether the increasingly large flows of workers� remittances can help reduce the probability of current account reversals. The rationale for this stands in the great stability and low cyclicality of remittances as compared to other private capital flows; these properties, combined with the fact that remittances are cheap inflows of foreign currencies, might reduce the probability that external financing gets restrained triggering a sharp current account adjustment. We find that remittances can indeed have such a beneficial effect. In particular, we show that a high level of remittances, as a ratio of GDP, makes the relationship between a decreasing stock of international reserves (over GDP) and a higher probability of current account reversals less stringent. The same occurs, though less neatly, for the positive relationship between an increasing stock of external debt (over GDP) and the probability of reversals. Our results point also to a threshold effect of remittances; the mechanism just described is, in fact, much stronger when remittances are above 3 percent of GDP.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 573.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_573_06
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  1. Rapoport, Hillel & Docquier, Frederic, 2006. "The Economics of Migrants' Remittances," Handbook on the Economics of Giving, Reciprocity and Altruism, Elsevier.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Cavallo, Eduardo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," Working Paper Series rwp04-038, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 21-76 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
  5. Docquier, Frederic & Marfouk, Abdeslam, 2004. "Measuring the international mobility of skilled workers (1990-2000) : release 1.0," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3381, The World Bank.
  6. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis," NBER Working Papers 6310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Alejandra Cox Edwards & Manuelita Ureta, 2003. "International Migration, Remittances, and Schooling: Evidence from El Salvador," NBER Working Papers 9766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert E. Lipsey, 2000. "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 1-49, June.
  11. Razin, Assaf & Rubinstein, Yona, 2004. "Growth Effects of the Exchange-Rate Regime and the Capital Account Openness in A Crisis-Prone World Market: A Nuanced View," CEPR Discussion Papers 4475, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops, and Current-Account Reversals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 59-64, May.
  13. McCormick, Barry & Wahba, Jackline, 2001. "Overseas Work Experience, Savings and Entrepreneurship amongst Return Migrants to LDCs," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 164-78, May.
  14. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Tania Sainz & Susan Pozo, 2007. "Remittances and healthcare expenditure patterns of populations in origin communities : evidence from Mexico," INTAL Working Papers 1450, Inter-American Development Bank, INTAL.
  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2004. "Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1407-1417, August.
  17. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2003. "Explaining Sudden Stops, Growth Collapse and BOP Crises: The Case of Distortionary Output Taxes," NBER Working Papers 9864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Edwards, Alejandra Cox & Ureta, Manuelita, 2003. "International migration, remittances, and schooling: evidence from El Salvador," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 429-461, December.
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