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Wage growth in the euro area: where do we stand?

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Bulligan

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Elisa Guglielminetti

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Eliana Viviano

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

One of the key questions about the current economic recovery in the euro area is why the decline in unemployment recorded since the second half of 2013 has been accompanied by subdued growth in nominal wages. In this paper we adopt a Phillips curve framework to assess whether alternative indicators of labour market slack can explain the current modest wage dynamics in the euro area and in its five largest economies. Our results suggest that the intensive margin of labour utilization plays a relevant role in wage growth: our estimates indicate that the shape of the Phillips curve becomes flatter for lower levels of hours per worker, implying that wage growth is less responsive to unemployment. Looking ahead, a significant recovery in the intensive margin appears key to achieve a robust increase in nominal wage growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Bulligan & Elisa Guglielminetti & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Wage growth in the euro area: where do we stand?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 413, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_413_17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marianna Riggi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2015. "Failing to Forecast Low Inflation and Phillips Curve Instability: A Euro-Area Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 47-68, March.
    2. Mario Izquierdo & Juan Jimeno & Theodora Kosma & Ana Lamo & Stephen Millard & Tairi Room & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Labour market adjustment in Europe during the crisis: microeconomic evidence from the Wage Dynamics Network survey," Bank of England working papers 661, Bank of England.
    3. Guido Bulligan & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Has the wage Phillips curve changed in the euro area?," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Andrea Brandolini & Piero Cipollone & Eliana Viviano, 2006. "Does The Ilo Definition Capture All Unemployment?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 153-179, March.
    5. Mario Izquierdo & Juan Francisco Jimeno & Theodora Kosma & Ana Lamo & Stephen Millard & Tairi Room & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Labour market adjustment in Europe during the crisis: microeconomic evidence from the wage dynamics network survey," Working Papers 233, Bank of Greece.
    6. Andrea Brandolini & Eliana Viviano, 2016. "Behind and beyond the (head count) employment rate," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(3), pages 657-681, June.
    7. Theodora Kosma & Evangelia Papapetrou & Georgia Pavlou & Christina Tsochatzi & Pinelopi Zioutou, 2017. "Labour market adjustments and reforms in Greece during the crisis: microeconomic evidence from the third wave of the wage dynamics," Working Papers 227, Bank of Greece.
    8. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2017. "Composition and Aggregate Real Wage Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 349-352, May.
    9. Ulf Rinne & Klaus Zimmermann, 2012. "Another economic miracle? The German labor market and the Great Recession," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2020. "A note on the stability of the Swedish Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2573-2612, December.
    2. Byrne, David & Zekaite, Zivile, 2020. "Non-linearity in the wage Phillips curve: Euro area analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    3. Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2019. "European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2019/156, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Antonio M. Conti & Elisa Guglielminetti & Marianna Riggi, 2019. "Labour productivity and the wageless recovery," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1257, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Antonio M. Conti & Concetta Gigante, 2018. "Weakness in Italy�s core inflation and the Phillips curve: the role of labour and financial indicators," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 466, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Conti, Antonio M., 2021. "Resurrecting the Phillips Curve in Low-Inflation Times," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 172-195.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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