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Non-linearity in the wage Phillips curve: Euro area analysis

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  • Byrne, David
  • Zekaite, Zivile

Abstract

This paper examines the sensitivity of wage growth to labour market tightness in the euro area. We show that the euro area wage Phillips curve is convex. When labour market slack is elevated, wage growth does not respond to changing labour market conditions. This finding explains “missing wage growth” as the labour market tightened between 2013 and 2016, and why stronger wage growth has been evident since 2017.

Suggested Citation

  • Byrne, David & Zekaite, Zivile, 2020. "Non-linearity in the wage Phillips curve: Euro area analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:186:y:2020:i:c:s0165176519302460
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.07.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2014. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 51-93, October.
    2. Guido Bulligan & Elisa Guglielminetti & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Wage growth in the euro area: where do we stand?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 413, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    4. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
    5. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. wage Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-43.
    6. David N.F. Bell & David G. Blanchflower, 2018. "Underemployment in the US and Europe," NBER Working Papers 24927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hindrayanto, Irma & Samarina, Anna & Stanga, Irina M., 2019. "Is the Phillips curve still alive? Evidence from the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 149-152.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    2. Jean-Louis Combes & Pierre Lesuisse, 2022. "Inflation and unemployment, new insights during the EMU accession," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 172, pages 124-142.
    3. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    4. Solikin M. Juhro, 2023. "Future Central Banking In Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers WP/01/2023, Bank Indonesia.
    5. Lehner, Lukas & Ramskogler, Paul & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2022. "Begging thy coworker – Labor market dualization and the slow-down of wage growth in Europe," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-04, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    6. Yao Chen & Felix Ward, 2022. "Output Divergence in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Euro Area Growing Apart?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-031/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Iacono, Roberto & Ranaldi, Marco, 2020. "The wage curve across the wealth distribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Esady, Vania & Speigner, Bradley & Wanengkirtyo, Boromeus, 2023. "Revisiting the effects of long-term unemployment on inflation: the role of non-linearities," Bank of England working papers 1018, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Wage Phillips curve; Wage inflation; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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