Market Valuation and Risk Assessment of Canadian Banks

The authors apply the asset-valuation model developed by Rabinovitch (1989) to six publicly traded Canadian banks over the period 1982–2002. The model is an extension of the Merton (1977a) option-pricing model with the incorporation of stochastic interest rates. The authors introduce the Z-score, a measure of distance-to-default, which can be a useful tool for regulators in assessing the risk of bank failures. The Z-scores, overall, suggest that Canadian banks are far from the point of default. The authors also find that both the market valuation of the bank assets and the Z-score of the Canadian banks demonstrate similar regime shifts in the late 1990s, which may be related to regulatory changes during the 1990s.