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Market Valuation and Risk Assessment of Indian Banks using Black -Scholes -Merton Model

Author

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  • Sinha, Pankaj
  • Sharma, Sakshi
  • Sondhi, Kriti

Abstract

The most pernicious effect of the global financial crisis is that it triggers a sequence of unpleasant consequences for the banking sector and for the entire economy as a whole. The recent financial crisis has compelled regulators to focus on the necessity of resilience of banks towards risks and sudden financial shocks. The riskiness of banks assets and its equity are two important factors for valuation of banks. These risks can be incorporated in market valuation only through Black-Scholes-Merton Model. This paper uses Black-Scholes-Merton option valuation approach for calculation of the market value and volatility of bank’s assets for a random sample of 13 Public and 8 Private sector banks in India over the period from March 2003 to March 2012. Further, it calculates yearly Z-score for each bank, allowing for capital adequacy as per the Basel II and III norms, for the periods before and after 2008 financial crisis. The obtained Z-scores suggest that the Indian banks are far from default and the impact of global recession of 2008 on the banks solvency was insignificant. All the Indian banks have market value to enterprise value ratio typically in the range of 93 to 99 per cent, suggesting that market value of bank’s assets obtained from Black-Scholes-Merton is characteristically below its enterprise value since market value considers the riskiness of the equity and assets both. It is found that the volatility of banks assets is significantly different for public and private sector banks over the period of study. Investigation of NPA to Total Assets reveals that presently NPA levels of the public sector banks are increasing whereas it is declining for the private sector banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinha, Pankaj & Sharma, Sakshi & Sondhi, Kriti, 2013. "Market Valuation and Risk Assessment of Indian Banks using Black -Scholes -Merton Model," MPRA Paper 47442, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47442
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47442/1/MPRA_paper_47442.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luc Laeven, 2002. "Bank Risk and Deposit Insurance," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(1), pages 109-137, June.
    2. Sinha, Pankaj & Taneja, Varundeep Singh & Gothi, Vineet, 2009. "Evaluation of riskiness of Indian Banks and probability of book value insolvency," MPRA Paper 15251, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ronald Giammarino & Eduardo Schwartz & Josef Zechner, 1989. "Market Valuation of Bank Assets and Deposit Insurance in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 22(1), pages 109-127, February.
    4. Liu, Ying & Papakirykos, Eli & Yuan, Mingwei, 2006. "Market Valuation and Risk Assessment of Canadian Banks," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-18.
    5. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Roberts, Gordon S, 1993. "Canadian Banking Solvency, 1922-1940," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 361-376, August.
    6. Rabinovitch, Ramon, 1989. "Pricing Stock and Bond Options when the Default-Free Rate is Stochastic," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(04), pages 447-457, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Black-Scholes -Merton; Market value; Volatility; Z-score; Non-Performing Assets;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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