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The Effect of Political Communication on European Financial Markets during the Sovereign Debt Crisis

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  • Conrad, Christian
  • Zumbach, Klaus Ulrich

Abstract

We quantify all statements by major European politicians reported by Reuters during the August 2011 to December 2011 period and show that political communication significantly affects European stock and bond markets as well as the EUR-USD exchange rate. Communication with respect to Italy induces the strongest market reactions. Financial markets consider the German bondmarket a safe haven.

Suggested Citation

  • Conrad, Christian & Zumbach, Klaus Ulrich, 2012. "The Effect of Political Communication on European Financial Markets during the Sovereign Debt Crisis," Working Papers 0536, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0536
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Conrad & Michael J. Lamla, 2010. "The High‐Frequency Response of the EUR‐USD Exchange Rate to ECB Communication," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1391-1417, October.
    2. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, March.
    3. Ehrmann, Michael & Osbat, Chiara & Stráský, Jan & Uusküla, Lenno, 2014. "The euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis – Dancing to its own tune?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 319-339.
    4. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 383-408, September.
    5. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2013. "Spread the news: The impact of news on the European sovereign bond markets during the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 83-101.
    6. Juha Kilponen & Helinä Laakkonen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2015. "Sovereign Risk, European Crisis-Resolution Policies, and Bond Spreads," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 285-323, March.
    7. Dieter Smeets & Marco Zimmermann, 2013. "Did the EU Summits Succeed in Convincing the Markets during the Recent Crisis?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1158-1177, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Julia Wolfinger & Lars P. Feld & Ekkehard A. Köhler & Tobias Thomas, 2018. "57 Channels (And Nothin On) - Does TV-News on the Eurozone Affect Government Bond Yield Spreads?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7437, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Conrad, Christian & Stuermer, Karin, 2017. "On the economic determinants of optimal stock-bond portfolios: international evidence," Working Papers 0636, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General

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