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ECB communication and its impact on financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Istrefi, Klodiana
  • Odendahl, Florens
  • Sestieri, Giulia

Abstract

This paper introduces the Euro Area Communication Event-Study Database (EA-CED), a new dataset tracking financial market movements around the ECB Governing Council meetings (GC) and inter-meeting communication (IMC). Covering the period from 1999 to 2024, the EA-CED contains intraday changes in euro area financial variables around 304 ECB GC policy announcements and around 4,400 IMC events, the latter being primarily speeches and interviews. We document several new empirical findings regarding the impact of IMC on financial markets. First, we show that many IMC events are associated with significant market movements, often of similar or larger magnitude than ECB policy announcements, particularly for yields at longer maturities. Significant effects are not limited to communication from the ECB president, but extend to other members of the Governing Council. Second, the importance of IMC varies over time, reaching its peak around tightening cycles, particularly during 2022-2023. Third, similarly to ECB GC announcements, IMC events convey multidimensional information and lead to surprises related to the path of monetary policy and the state of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Istrefi, Klodiana & Odendahl, Florens & Sestieri, Giulia, 2024. "ECB communication and its impact on financial markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 19242, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19242
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    2. Odendahl, Florens & Pagliari, Maria Sole & Penalver, Adrian & Rossi, Barbara & Sestieri, Giulia, 2024. "Euro area monetary policy effects. Does the shape of the yield curve matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    3. Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2023. "The (not so) quiet period: Communication by ECB decision-makers during monetary policy blackout days☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Ehrmann, Michael & Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2023. "Central Bank Communication by ??? The Economics of Public Policy Leaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 18152, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Raquel Caldeira, 2024. "Should Central Banks Care About Text Mining? A Literature Review," Working papers 950, Banque de France.
    6. Haroon Mumtaz & Jumana Saleheen & Roxane Spitznagel, 2023. "Keep it Simple: Central Bank Communication and Asset Prices," Working Papers 960, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Fadda, Pietro & Hanifi, Rayane & Istrefi, Klodiana & Penalver, Adrian, 2025. "Central bank communication of uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2022. "The (Not So) Quiet Period: Communication by ECB Decision-makers during Monetary Policy Blackout Days," CEPR Discussion Papers 15735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Michael McMahon, 2024. "Lessons for Monetary Policy Communication: Communication, Getting Through and Expectation Formation," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2024-01, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised May 2025.
    10. Altavilla, Carlo & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Laeven, Luc & Kind, Thilo, 2025. "Monetary transmission with frequent policy events," Working Paper Series 3157, European Central Bank.
    11. Istrefi, Klodiana & Odendahl, Florens & Sestieri, Giulia, 2023. "Fed communication on financial stability concerns and monetary policy decisions: Revelations from speeches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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