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The Millennium Bub


  • Joshua S. Gans
  • Andrew Leigh


How much do non-medical factors affect the timing of conceptions, births and deaths? To test this, we estimate the effect of the millennium on conceptions, births and deaths. With a highly flexible empirical specification, we find large and significant increases in conceptions and births, and suggestive evidence of an effect on deaths.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua S. Gans & Andrew Leigh, 2006. "The Millennium Bub," CEPR Discussion Papers 531, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:531

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gans, Joshua S. & Leigh, Andrew, 2009. "Born on the first of July: An (un)natural experiment in birth timing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 246-263, February.
    2. Gans Joshua S & Leigh Andrew, 2006. "Did the Death of Australian Inheritance Taxes Affect Deaths?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, November.
    3. Wojciech Kopczuk & Joel Slemrod, 2003. "Dying to Save Taxes: Evidence from Estate-Tax Returns on the Death Elasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 256-265, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sara LaLumia & James M. Sallee & Nicholas Turner, 2015. "New Evidence on Taxes and the Timing of Birth," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 258-293, May.
    2. Levy, Becca R. & Chung, Pil H. & Slade, Martin D., 2011. "Influence of Valentine’s Day and Halloween on Birth Timing," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(8), pages 1246-1248.
    3. Gans Joshua S & Leigh Andrew, 2006. "Did the Death of Australian Inheritance Taxes Affect Deaths?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, November.
    4. Eliason, M. & Ohlsson, H., 2013. "Timing of death and the repeal of the Swedish inheritance tax," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 113-123.

    More about this item


    conceptions; births; deaths; timing; millennium;

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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