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Werbemarkt Fernsehen: Zur Eignung der Spektralanalyse als Prognoseinstrument



Over more than a decade, advertising rates per 1000 viewers, television consumption as well as the number of advertising spots have been steadily increasing. As a consequence, television has developed to the most important medium for the advertising industry and attracts a 40% share of German gross advertising spending. Motivated by the recent slump of advertising rates and of the number of spots, this paper attempts to develop a forecast model for real advertising spending on the German TV market. In a first step, spectral analysis is used to identify the most important cycles on the advertising market. In a second step, the identified cycles are entering a regression model which is the basis for making forecasts. To evaluate the forecast quality, the results are compared to a standard ARIMA model. The estimations are based on monthly data of the German TV advertising market from 1990 to 2004. Actually, the results show that the estimated cyclical pattern describes the trends on the TV advertising market very well. The cycle model is therefore a useful tool for making ex-ante forecasts of real advertising spending. Underlining the quality of the approach, the ARIMA approach is performing significantly worse than the introduced cycle model.

Suggested Citation

  • Guenter Lang, 2005. "Werbemarkt Fernsehen: Zur Eignung der Spektralanalyse als Prognoseinstrument," Discussion Paper Series 274, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:0274

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2002. "Unity and Plurality of the European Cycle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2002-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Hirschey, Mark John, 1978. "Television advertising and profitability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 259-264.
    3. Lambin, Jean-Jacques & Naert, Philippe A. & Bultez, Alain, 1975. "Optimal marketing behavior in oligopoly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 105-128, April.
    4. Gebhard Flaig, 2003. "Time Series Properties of the German Monthly Production Index," CESifo Working Paper Series 833, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Duffy, Martyn, 2003. "Advertising and food, drink and tobacco consumption in the United Kingdom: a dynamic demand system," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 51-70, January.
    6. Schmalensee, Richard, 1983. "Advertising and Entry Deterrence: An Exploratory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 636-653, August.
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    More about this item


    advertising; ARIMA; cycles; forecast; spectral analysis; television;

    JEL classification:

    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • M37 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Advertising
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


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