IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Zykluskonforme Krise oder Strukturbruch? - Zeitreiheneigenschaften des deutschen Werbemarktes



The current crisis of the media industry is a consequence of poor revenues from the advertising market. Actually, advertising revenues are contributing more than 60% to the total revenues of German mass media, thus dominating the economic performance of media firms. This empirical contribution seeks to understand the cyclical behavior pattern of the advertising market and to test if the recent slump in advertising demand follows this cyclical pattern. In a first step, spectral analysis is used to identify potential cycle lengths. In a second step, the explanatory power of cycles for advertising demand is evaluated by inserting the most important cycle lengths into a regression model. All estimations are based on yearly data of the German advertising market from 1960 to 2003, differentiated by five types of media. The results underline a strong influence of overlapping cycles for the advertising market, with advertising in magazines being the only exception. There is no statistical support for the hypothesis of a structural break during the recent slump in advertising demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Guenter Lang, 2004. "Zykluskonforme Krise oder Strukturbruch? - Zeitreiheneigenschaften des deutschen Werbemarktes," Discussion Paper Series 258, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:0258

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2002. "Unity and Plurality of the European Cycle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2002-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Gebhard Flaig, 2003. "Time Series Properties of the German Monthly Production Index," CESifo Working Paper Series 833, CESifo Group Munich.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Advertising; Media; Spectral Analysis; Cycle; Structural Break; Forecast;

    JEL classification:

    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • M37 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Advertising
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:0258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr. Albrecht Bossert). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.