Economic and spatial modelling for estimating supply of perennial crops’ biomass in Poland
Among measures to promote renewable energy the electricity feed-in tariff scheme is extensively used in many countries to meet the goals set by governments related to energy independence and mitigation of greenhouse effect. In this paper, an agricultural supply spatial model is run to estimate biomass plantations adoption by Polish farmers at the municipal level. Detailed spatial and agronomic information is used limiting potential areas to the less fertile land, focusing on certain land classes where research undertaken by IUNG has provided reliable estimates for willow and miscanthus cultivation needs and production yields. Decisions on multi-year land use for dedicated energy plantations replacing conventional annual crops such as rye and triticale are driven by discounted cash flow analysis. An appropriate mathematical model is built in order to estimate biomass for energy supply for a range of hypothetical prices offered by coal fueled power plants. Parametric optimization results are shown in supply curve form in order to determine efficient price levels. Results are illustrated also in terms of crop acreages as well as spatial distribution at the national level in NUTS5 resolution
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
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