IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2603.07914.html

Event-Study Designs for Discrete Outcomes under Transition Independence

Author

Listed:
  • Young Ahn
  • Hiroyuki Kasahara

Abstract

We develop a new identification strategy for average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) in panel data with discrete outcomes. Standard difference-in-differences (DiD) relies on parallel trends, which is frequently violated in categorical settings due to mean reversion, out-of-bounds counterfactuals, and ill-defined trends for multi-category outcomes. We propose an alternative identification strategy with transition independence: absent treatment, transition dynamics conditional on pre-treatment outcomes are identical between control and treated groups. To capture unobserved heterogeneity, we introduce a latent-type Markov structure delivering type-specific and aggregate treatment effects from short panels. Three empirical applications yield ATT estimates substantially different from conventional DiD.

Suggested Citation

  • Young Ahn & Hiroyuki Kasahara, 2026. "Event-Study Designs for Discrete Outcomes under Transition Independence," Papers 2603.07914, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2603.07914
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.07914
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769, December.
    2. Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2003. "The Labor Market Experience of Workers with Disabilities: The ADA and Beyond," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number lmewd.
    3. Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian Hansen & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2019. "Pre-event Trends in the Panel Event-Study Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3307-3338, September.
    4. Raymond Carroll & Xiaohong Chen & Yingyao Hu, 2010. "Identification and estimation of nonlinear models using two samples with nonclassical measurement errors," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 379-399.
    5. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Difference-in-Differences Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(2), pages 431-497, March.
    6. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
    7. Card, David & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1988. "Measuring the Effect of Subsidized Training Programs on Movements in and out of Employment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 497-530, May.
    8. Ben Charoenwong & Alan Kwan & Tarik Umar, 2019. "Does Regulatory Jurisdiction Affect the Quality of Investment-Adviser Regulation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(10), pages 3681-3712, October.
    9. Higgins, Ayden & Jochmans, Koen, 2023. "Identification of mixtures of dynamic discrete choices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(1).
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Joshua D. Angrist, 2001. "Consequences of Employment Protection? The Case of the Americans with Disabilities Act," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 915-957, October.
    11. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
    12. Albert Madansky, 1960. "Determinantal methods in latent class analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 25(2), pages 183-198, June.
    13. Ariella Kahn-Lang & Kevin Lang, 2020. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Differences-in-Differences: Reflections on 16 and Pregnant and Other Applications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 613-620, July.
    14. Di Francesco, Riccardo & Mellace, Giovanni, 2025. "Causal inference for qualitative outcomes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    15. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2009. "Nonparametric Identification of Finite Mixture Models of Dynamic Discrete Choices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(1), pages 135-175, January.
    16. T. Anderson, 1954. "On estimation of parameters in latent structure analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 19(1), pages 1-10, March.
    17. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    18. Stéphane Bonhomme & Elena Manresa, 2015. "Grouped Patterns of Heterogeneity in Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 1147-1184, May.
    19. Jonathan Roth, 2022. "Pretest with Caution: Event-Study Estimates after Testing for Parallel Trends," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 305-322, September.
    20. Ashesh Rambachan & Jonathan Roth, 2023. "A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2555-2591.
    21. James G. MacKinnon & Matthew D. Webb, 2017. "Wild Bootstrap Inference for Wildly Different Cluster Sizes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 233-254, March.
    22. Soren T. Anderson & James M. Sallee, 2011. "Using Loopholes to Reveal the Marginal Cost of Regulation: The Case of Fuel-Economy Standards," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1375-1409, June.
    23. Ding, Peng & Li, Fan, 2019. "A Bracketing Relationship between Difference-in-Differences and Lagged-Dependent-Variable Adjustment," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 605-615, October.
    24. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "Simple approaches to nonlinear difference-in-differences with panel data," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 31-66.
    25. Han Hong, 2010. "Comment for identification and estimation of nonlinear models using two samples with nonclassical measurement errors, by Carroll, Chen and Hu," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 405-408.
    26. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    27. Philip Marx & Elie Tamer & Xun Tang, 2024. "Heterogeneous Treatment Effects via Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models," Papers 2410.19060, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    28. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    29. Hu, Yingyao, 2008. "Identification and estimation of nonlinear models with misclassification error using instrumental variables: A general solution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 27-61, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    2. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2024. "Estimating Causal Effects with Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," IFRO Working Paper 2024/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    3. Ratzanyel Rinc'on & Kyungchul Song, 2025. "Causal Inference with Groupwise Matching," Papers 2510.26106, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    4. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    5. Nilsen, Øivind A. & Raknerud, Arvid, 2024. "Dynamics of first-time patenting firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(8).
    6. Mark Kattenberg & Bas Scheer & Jurre Thiel, 2023. "Causal forests with fixed effects for treatment effect heterogeneity in difference-in-differences," CPB Discussion Paper 452, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Michael Ryan & Ayumu Tanaka, 2025. "Multinational firms’ responses to a host country financial crisis: the case of Korea," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(3), pages 997-1033, August.
    8. Gregory Faletto, 2023. "Fused Extended Two-Way Fixed Effects for Difference-in-Differences With Staggered Adoptions," Papers 2312.05985, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    9. Damian Clarke & Kathya Tapia-Schythe, 2021. "Implementing the panel event study," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 21(4), pages 853-884, December.
    10. Elena Kotyrlo, 2024. "Simple and complex difference-in-differences approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 73, pages 119-142.
    11. Kaleb Abreha & Raymond Robertson, 2025. "Revisiting the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements Using Staggered Adoption Design," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 53(3), pages 113-124, September.
    12. Brantly Callaway & Derek Dyal & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna & Emmanuel S. Tsyawo, 2025. "Beyond Parallel Trends: An Identification-Strategy-Robust Approach to Causal Inference with Panel Data," Papers 2511.21977, arXiv.org.
    13. Christian Alemán-Pericón & Alexander Ludwig & Christopher Busch & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2022. "A Stage-Based Identification of Policy Effects," Working Papers 1369, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Rands, Tales & Barsanetti, Bruno, 2025. "College access spillover on high school performance: Evidence from college openings," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Wang, Zhen & Chu, Erming, 2024. "The path toward urban carbon neutrality: How does the low-carbon city pilot policy stimulate low-carbon technology?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 954-975.
    16. Philipp Bach & Sven Klaassen & Jannis Kueck & Mara Mattes & Martin Spindler, 2025. "Sensitivity Analysis for Treatment Effects in Difference-in-Differences Models using Riesz Representation," Papers 2510.09064, arXiv.org.
    17. Ruonan Xu & Luther Yap, 2024. "Clustering with Potential Multidimensionality: Inference and Practice," Papers 2411.13372, arXiv.org.
    18. Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian Hansen & Jorge Pérez Pérez & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2021. "Visualization, Identification, and Estimation in the Linear Panel Event-Study Design," NBER Working Papers 29170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Yixiao Sun & Haitian Xie & Yuhang Zhang, 2025. "Difference-in-Differences Meets Synthetic Control: Doubly Robust Identification and Estimation," Papers 2503.11375, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    20. Ridwan Ah Sheikh & Sunil Kanwar, 2025. "Revisiting the impact of TRIPS on trade: Evidence from staggered difference-in-differences," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2025-025, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2603.07914. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.