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Heterogeneous Intertemporal Treatment Effects via Dynamic Panel Data Models

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  • Philip Marx
  • Elie Tamer
  • Xun Tang

Abstract

We study the identification and estimation of heterogeneous, intertemporal treatment effects (TE) when potential outcomes depend on past treatments. First, applying a dynamic panel data model to observed outcomes, we show that instrument-based GMM estimators, such as Arellano and Bond (1991), converge to a non-convex (negatively weighted) aggregate of TE plus non-vanishing trends. We then provide restrictions on sequential exchangeability (SE) of treatment and TE heterogeneity that reduce the GMM estimand to a convex (positively weighted) aggregate of TE. Second, we introduce an adjusted inverse-propensity-weighted (IPW) estimator for a new notion of average treatment effect (ATE) over past observed treatments. Third, we show that when potential outcomes are generated by dynamic panel data models with homogeneous TE, such GMM estimators converge to causal parameters (even when SE is generically violated without conditioning on individual fixed effects). Finally, we motivate SE and compare it with parallel trends (PT) in various settings with observational data (when treatments are dynamic, rational choices under learning) or experimental data (when treatments are sequentially randomized).

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Marx & Elie Tamer & Xun Tang, 2024. "Heterogeneous Intertemporal Treatment Effects via Dynamic Panel Data Models," Papers 2410.19060, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2410.19060
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Badi H. Baltagi, 2021. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 6, number 978-3-030-53953-5, December.
    2. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
    3. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    4. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    5. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
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