IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2509.04307.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When Does Tourism Raise Land Prices? Threshold Effects, Superstar Cities, and Policy Lessons from Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Mingzhi Xiao
  • Takara Sakai
  • Daisuke Murakami
  • Yuki Takayama

Abstract

While tourism is widely regarded as a catalyst for economic and urban transformation, its effects on land prices remain contested. This study examines tourism and land prices using a panel of 1,724 Japanese municipalities from 2021 to 2024, with annual tourist arrivals as a proxy for tourism activity. Using mediation analysis and panel threshold regression, we show that sizable land price increases are concentrated in a small group of "superstar" cities, specifically those in the top 5.9 percent for tourist arrivals, while most municipalities experience little or no effect. The results highlight pronounced nonlinearities and spatial heterogeneity in tourism's economic impact across Japan. The potential mechanisms linking tourism to land price growth are mixed, with possible benefits for local residents as well as risks of increased burdens. These findings underscore the need for policies that promote inclusive growth and an equitable distribution of tourism-related gains.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingzhi Xiao & Takara Sakai & Daisuke Murakami & Yuki Takayama, 2025. "When Does Tourism Raise Land Prices? Threshold Effects, Superstar Cities, and Policy Lessons from Japan," Papers 2509.04307, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.04307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.04307
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.04307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.