IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2507.19911.html

AI-Driven Spatial Distribution Dynamics: A Comprehensive Theoretical and Empirical Framework for Analyzing Productivity Agglomeration Effects in Japan's Aging Society

Author

Listed:
  • Tatsuru Kikuchi

Abstract

This paper develops the first comprehensive theoretical and empirical framework for analyzing AI-driven spatial distribution dynamics in metropolitan areas undergoing demographic transition. We extend New Economic Geography by formalizing five novel AI-specific mechanisms: algorithmic learning spillovers, digital infrastructure returns, virtual agglomeration effects, AI-human complementarity, and network externalities. Using Tokyo as our empirical laboratory, we implement rigorous causal identification through five complementary econometric strategies and develop machine learning predictions across 27 future scenarios spanning 2024-2050. Our theoretical framework generates six testable hypotheses, all receiving strong empirical support. The causal analysis reveals that AI implementation increases agglomeration concentration by 4.2-5.2 percentage points, with heterogeneous effects across industries: high AI-readiness sectors experience 8.4 percentage point increases, while low AI-readiness sectors show 1.2 percentage point gains. Machine learning predictions demonstrate that aggressive AI adoption can offset 60-80\% of aging-related productivity declines. We provide a strategic three-phase policy framework for managing AI-driven spatial transformation while promoting inclusive development. The integrated approach establishes a new paradigm for analyzing technology-driven spatial change with global applications for aging societies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatsuru Kikuchi, 2025. "AI-Driven Spatial Distribution Dynamics: A Comprehensive Theoretical and Empirical Framework for Analyzing Productivity Agglomeration Effects in Japan's Aging Society," Papers 2507.19911, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2507.19911
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.19911
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "The wrong kind of AI? Artificial intelligence and the future of labour demand," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 13(1), pages 25-35.
    3. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333.
    4. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.
    5. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg & Rebecca Henderson, 1993. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 577-598.
    7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthias Firgo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Wissens-Spillovers und regionale Entwicklung - welche strukturpolitische Ausrichtung optimiert des Wachstum?," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 144, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    2. Matthias Firgo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Wissensintensive Unternehmensdienste, Wissens-Spillovers und regionales Wachstum. Teilprojekt 1: Wissens-Spillovers und regionale Entwicklung – Welche strukturpolitische Ausrichtung optimiert das Wachstum?," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58342.
    3. Grinza, Elena & Quatraro, Francesco, 2019. "Workers’ replacements and firms’ innovation dynamics: New evidence from Italian matched longitudinal data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.
    4. Audretsch, David & Sanders, Mark, 2007. "Globalization and the Rise of the Entrepreneurial Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6247, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Todd M. Gabe, 2009. "Knowledge And Earnings," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 439-457, August.
    6. Amelia U. Santos-Paulino & Mariagrazia Squicciarini & Peilei Fan, 2008. "R&D (Re)location: A Bird's Eye (Re)view," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-100, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Grafström, Jonas, 2017. "Technological Change and Wage Polarization – The Illiberal Populist Response," Ratio Working Papers 294, The Ratio Institute.
    8. Mori, Tomoya & Sakaguchi, Shosei, 2018. "Collaborative knowledge creation: Evidence from Japanese patent data," MPRA Paper 88716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ernest Miguélez & Rosina Moreno, 2013. "Do Labour Mobility and Technological Collaborations Foster Geographical Knowledge Diffusion? The Case of European Regions," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 321-354, June.
    10. Paula Prenzel & Simona Iammarino, 2018. "Ageing labour: How does demographic change affect regional human capital?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1832, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2018.
    11. Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Reinhold Kosfeld & Matthias Türck, 2007. "Regionale Entwicklung mit und ohne räumliche Spillover-Effekte," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 27(1), pages 23-42, February.
    12. Ian R. Gordon & Philip McCann, 2000. "Industrial Clusters: Complexes, Agglomeration and/or Social Networks?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 37(3), pages 513-532, March.
    13. Armanda Cetrulo & Dario Guarascio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "Anatomy of the Italian occupational structure: concentrated power and distributed knowledge," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 29(6), pages 1345-1379.
    14. van der Velde, Lucas, 2022. "Phasing out: Routine tasks and retirement," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 784-803.
    15. Andreas Irmen, 2021. "Automation, growth, and factor shares in the era of population aging," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 415-453, December.
    16. Suzanne Kok, 2013. "Returns to Communication in Specialised and Diversified US Cities," CPB Discussion Paper 236.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Seth G. Benzell & Guillermo LaGarda, 2015. "Robots: Curse or Blessing? A Basic Framework," NBER Working Papers 21091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Marialuisa Divella & Alessia Lo Turco & Alessandro Sterlacchini, 2023. "Local labour tasks and patenting in US commuting zones," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1097-1119.
    19. Salomons, Anna & vom Baur, Cäcilia & Zierahn-Weilage, Ulrich, 2025. "Expertise at Work: New Technologies, New Skills, and Worker Impacts," IZA Discussion Papers 18248, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Gorynia, Marian & Jankowska, Barbara, . "Wpływ klasterów na konkurencyjność i internacjonalizację przedsiębiorstw," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2007(7-8).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2507.19911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.