IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2504.04047.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Labor Market Incidence of New Technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Tianyu Fan

Abstract

This paper develops a new framework to analyze the incidence of labor market shocks, focusing on automation and artificial intelligence. Central to our theory is the distance-dependent elasticity of substitution (DIDES), where worker mobility between occupations declines with their distance in skill space. Mapping 306 occupations into cognitive, manual, and interpersonal skill dimensions, we estimate a low-dimensional latent skill model that preserves granular substitution patterns. We show that both automation and artificial intelligence cluster within skill-adjacent occupations, constraining employment adjustment and amplifying wage effects. The clustering nature of technologies generates unequal outcomes: 20--50% of labor demand shocks translate to wages (versus 30% under standard models), while mobility recovers only 20\% of losses (versus 30% from standard estimates).

Suggested Citation

  • Tianyu Fan, 2025. "The Labor Market Incidence of New Technologies," Papers 2504.04047, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2504.04047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.04047
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    2. Jeremy Lise & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2020. "Multidimensional Skills, Sorting, and Human Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2328-2376, August.
    3. James Feigenbaum & Daniel P Gross, 2024. "Answering the Call of Automation: How the Labor Market Adjusted to Mechanizing Telephone Operation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1879-1939.
    4. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1992. "A Simple Model of Sectoral Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(2), pages 375-387.
    5. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    6. Benny Kleinman & Ernest Liu & Stephen J. Redding, 2023. "Dynamic Spatial General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 385-424, March.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in U.S. Wage Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 1973-2016, September.
    8. Pascual Restrepo, 2024. "Automation: Theory, Evidence, and Outlook," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, August.
    9. Michael Kremer, 1993. "The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 551-575.
    10. James Heckman & Lance Lochner & Christopher Taber, 1998. "Explaining Rising Wage Inequality: Explanations With A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Labor Earnings With Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 1-58, January.
    11. Melissa Dell, 2025. "Deep Learning for Economists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 63(1), pages 5-58, March.
    12. Fally, Thibault, 2015. "Structural gravity and fixed effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 76-85.
    13. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    14. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    15. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333.
    16. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    17. Julieta Caunedo & David Jaume & Elisa Keller, 2023. "Occupational Exposure to Capital-Embodied Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(6), pages 1642-1685, June.
    18. Teulings, Coen N, 1995. "The Wage Distribution in a Model of the Assignment of Skills to Jobs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 280-315, April.
    19. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    20. John R. Grigsby, 2022. "Skill Heterogeneity and Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 30052, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Coen N. Teulings, 2005. "Comparative Advantage, Relative Wages, and the Accumulation of Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 425-461, April.
    22. Ilse Lindenlaub, 2017. "Sorting Multidimensional Types: Theory and Application," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 718-789.
    23. Erhan Artuç & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2010. "Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1008-1045, June.
    24. Coen N. Teulings, 2002. "Comparative Advantage, Relative Wages, and the Accumulation of Human Capital," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-081/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 08 Apr 2005.
    25. Bocquet, L., 2024. "The Network Origin of Slow Labour Reallocation," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2427, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    26. Guido Matias Cortes, 2016. "Where Have the Middle-Wage Workers Gone? A Study of Polarization Using Panel Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 63-105.
    27. David H. Autor, 2015. "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    28. Christina Gathmann & Uta Schönberg, 2010. "How General Is Human Capital? A Task-Based Approach," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-49, January.
    29. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
    30. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    31. Rodrigo Adão & Martin Beraja & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2024. "Fast and Slow Technological Transitions," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(2), pages 183-227.
    32. Donghoon Lee & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2006. "Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 1-46, January.
    33. Tyna Eloundou & Sam Manning & Pamela Mishkin & Daniel Rock, 2023. "GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models," Papers 2303.10130, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    34. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.
    35. Bocquet, L., 2024. "The Network Origin of Slow Labour Reallocation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2465, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    36. Heckman, James J & Sedlacek, Guilherme, 1985. "Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and Market Wage Functions: An Empirical Model of Self-selection in the Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1077-1125, December.
    37. Sharon Traiberman, 2019. "Occupations and Import Competition: Evidence from Denmark," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(12), pages 4260-4301, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lukas B. Freund & Lukas F. Mann, 2025. "Job Transformation, Specialization, and the Labor Market Effects of AI," CESifo Working Paper Series 12072, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David J. Deming & Mikko I. Silliman, 2024. "Skills and Human Capital in the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 32908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lukas B. Freund & Lukas F. Mann, 2025. "Job Transformation, Specialization, and the Labor Market Effects of AI," CESifo Working Paper Series 12072, CESifo.
    3. Böhm, Michael Johannes & Etheridge, Ben & Irastorza-Fadrique, Aitor, 2025. "The Impact of Labour Demand Shocks when Occupational Labour Supplies are Heterogeneous," IZA Discussion Papers 17851, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Michael J. Böhm & Ben Etheridge & Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique, 2025. "The impact of labour demand shocks when occupational labour supplies are heterogeneous," IFS Working Papers W25/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. David J. Deming, 2017. "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1593-1640.
    6. Sergio Ocampo, 2019. "A task-based theory of occupations with multidimensional heterogeneity," 2019 Meeting Papers 477, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Nicolas A. Roys & Christopher R. Taber, 2019. "Skill Prices, Occupations, and Changes in the Wage Structure for Low Skilled Men," NBER Working Papers 26453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kehrig, Matthias, 2018. "Comment on “Computerizing industries and routinizing jobs: Explaining trends in aggregate productivity” by Sangmin Aum, Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 22-28.
    9. Ghodsi, Mahdi & Stehrer, Robert & Barišić, Antea, 2024. "Assessing the impact of new technologies on wages and labour income shares," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    10. Zhang, Xinchun & Sun, Murong & Liu, Jianxu & Xu, Aijia, 2024. "The nexus between industrial robot and employment in China: The effects of technology substitution and technology creation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    11. Falck, Oliver & Heimisch-Roecker, Alexandra & Wiederhold, Simon, 2021. "Returns to ICT skills," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    12. Stefania Albanesi & António Dias da Silva & Juan F Jimeno & Ana Lamo & Alena Wabitsch, 2025. "New technologies and jobs in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 40(121), pages 71-139.
    13. Maarten Goos & Melanie Arntz & Ulrich Zierahn & Terry Gregory & Stephanie Carretero Gomez & Ignacio Gonzalez Vazquez & Koen Jonkers, 2019. "The Impact of Technological Innovation on the Future of Work," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2019-03, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Cavaglia, Chiara & Etheridge, Ben, 2020. "Job polarization and the declining quality of knowledge workers: Evidence from the UK and Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Bhalotra, Sonia & Fernandez, Manuel & Wang, Fan, 2022. "The Distribution of the Gender Wage Gap: An Equilibrium Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 17253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Bocquet, L., 2024. "The Network Origin of Slow Labour Reallocation," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2427, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Bocquet, L., 2024. "The Network Origin of Slow Labour Reallocation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2465, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Kudoh, Noritaka & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2025. "Robots, AI, and unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    19. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2019. "Occupation Mobility, Human Capital and the Aggregate Consequences of Task-Biased Innovations," Working Papers 2019-064, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    20. Michael J. Böhm & Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Felix Schran, 2024. "Occupation Growth, Skill Prices, and Wage Inequality," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(1), pages 201-243.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2504.04047. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.