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The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Implications of Non-Stationarity

  • Roger Perman

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • David I. Stern

    (Centre for Energy and Environmental Studies, Australian National University)

In this paper, we apply time series techniques for panel data to the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model. Within the literature that estimates emissions-income relations in the EKC context, little attention has been paid to the time series properties of the data and in particular to whether the variables could be integrated time series. We estimate the EKC for sulphur emissions using a panel data set for 74 countries over 30 years. Using individual unit root tests, we find that both sulphur emissions and GDP per capita are integrated variables in the majority of countries. This result is confirmed by panel unit root tests that find that the panel series are integrated. Individual cointegration tests show that EKC relations in most countries do not cointegrate. Results of a number of panel cointegration statistics are mixed. Even if there is cointegration in the panel many of the individual EKC functions are U shaped or monotonic in income. There is no single cointegrating vector common to all countries. The results show that the EKC may be a problematic concept, as simple global EKC models are misspecified.

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File URL: http://een.anu.edu.au/download_files/eep9901.pdf
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Paper provided by Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program in its series Working Papers in Ecological Economics with number 9901.

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Date of creation: Jun 1999
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Handle: RePEc:anu:wpieep:9901
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://incres.anu.edu.au/EEP/wp.html

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  1. Lopez Ramon, 1994. "The Environment as a Factor of Production: The Effects of Economic Growth and Trade Liberalization," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 163-184, September.
  2. Stern , David I., 1998. "Progress on the environmental Kuznets curve?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 173-196, May.
  3. Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Shafik, Nemat, 1994. "Economic Development and Environmental Quality: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(0), pages 757-73, Supplemen.
  5. John, A. & Pecchenino, R. & Schimmelpfennig, D. & Schreft, S., 1995. "Short-lived agents and the long-lived environment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 127-141, September.
  6. Grossman, Gene & Krueger, Alan B, 1992. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," CEPR Discussion Papers 644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Beckerman, Wilfred, 1992. "Economic growth and the environment: Whose growth? whose environment?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 481-496, April.
  8. McCONNELL, KENNETH E., 1997. "Income and the demand for environmental quality," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 383-399, November.
  9. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  10. John, A & Pecchenino, R, 1994. "An Overlapping Generations Model of Growth and the Environment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1393-1410, November.
  11. Stern, David I. & Common, Michael S., 2001. "Is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve for Sulfur?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 162-178, March.
  12. Panayotou, Theodore, 1997. "Demystifying the environmental Kuznets curve: turning a black box into a policy tool," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 465-484, November.
  13. Cole, M.A. & Rayner, A.J. & Bates, J.M., 1997. "The environmental Kuznets curve: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 401-416, November.
  14. Selden Thomas M. & Song Daqing, 1994. "Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 147-162, September.
  15. Selden Thomas M. & Song Daqing, 1995. "Neoclassical Growth, the J Curve for Abatement, and the Inverted U Curve for Pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 162-168, September.
  16. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  17. P Ekins, 1997. "The Kuznets curve for the environment and economic growth: examining the evidence," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 29(5), pages 805-830, May.
  18. Quah, D., 1993. "Exploiting Cross Section Variation for Unit Root Inference in Dynamic Data," Papers 549, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  19. Vincent, Jeffrey R., 1997. "Testing for environmental Kuznets curves within a developing country," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 417-431, November.
  20. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
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