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Mendel versus Malthus: Research, Productivity and Food Prices in the Long Run

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  • Alston, Julian M.
  • Beddow, Jason M.
  • Pardey, Philip G.

Abstract

Over the past 50 years and longer, the supply of food commodities has grown faster than the effective market demand, in spite of increasing population and per capita incomes. Consequently, the real (deflated) prices of food commodities have steadily trended down. The past increases in agricultural productivity and production, and the resulting real price trends, are attributable in large part to technological changes enabled by investments in agricultural R&D. Evidence is beginning to emerge of a slowdown in the long-term path of agricultural productivity growth. These productivity patterns mirror a progressive slowing down in the growth rate of total spending on agricultural R&D and a redirection of the funds away from farm productivity that began 20-30 years ago.

Suggested Citation

  • Alston, Julian M. & Beddow, Jason M. & Pardey, Philip G., 2009. "Mendel versus Malthus: Research, Productivity and Food Prices in the Long Run," Staff Papers 53400, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:umaesp:53400
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.53400
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    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Yongyang & Golub, Alla A. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Judd, Kenneth L., 2016. "Agricultural R&D Policy in the Face of Climate and Economic Uncertainty," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235981, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Zhongen Niu & Huimin Yan & Fang Liu, 2020. "Decreasing Cropping Intensity Dominated the Negative Trend of Cropland Productivity in Southern China in 2000–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Cock, James & Prager, Steven & Meinke, Holger & Echeverria, Ruben, 2022. "Labour productivity: The forgotten yield gap," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    4. Julian M. Alston & Joanna P. MacEwan & Abigail M. Okrent, 2016. "Effects of U.S. Public Agricultural R&D on U.S. Obesity and its Social Costs," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 492-520.
    5. Bervejillo, Jose E. & Alston, Julian M. & Tumber, Kabir P., 2011. "The Economic Returns to Public Agricultural Research in Uruguay," Working Papers 162518, Robert Mondavi Institute Center for Wine Economics.
    6. Tina L. Saitone & Richard J. Sexton, 2017. "Agri-food supply chain: evolution and performance with conflicting consumer and societal demands," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(4), pages 634-657.
    7. Kerr, William A., 2014. "Food Security and Trade: Some Supply Conundrums for 2050," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 15(2), pages 1-18.
    8. Lachaud, Michée A. & Bravo-Ureta, Boris E., 2022. "A Bayesian statistical analysis of return to agricultural R&D investment in Latin America: Implications for food security," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2010. "Promoting Global Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction," Conference papers 331944, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Wang, Sun Ling & Heisey, Paul & Schimmelpfennig, David & Ball, Eldon, 2015. "Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States: Measurement, Trends, and Drivers," Economic Research Report 207954, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. repec:ags:aare13:148420 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Pavleska, Marija & Kerr, William A., 2020. "Linking investment decisions and future food security to the regulation of genetic-based technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    13. Zewdie Habte Shikur, 2020. "Agricultural policies, agricultural production and rural households’ welfare in Ethiopia," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    14. Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel & Tack, Jesse B., 2018. "Another genetic yield revolution is needed to offset climate change effects on U.S. maize," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274380, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Gunatilake, Herath & Roland-Holst, David & Sugiyarto, Guntur, 2014. "Energy security for India: Biofuels, energy efficiency and food productivity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 761-767.
    16. Laura C. Bowling & Keith A. Cherkauer & Charlotte I. Lee & Janna L. Beckerman & Sylvie Brouder & Jonathan R. Buzan & Otto C. Doering & Jeffrey S. Dukes & Paul D. Ebner & Jane R. Frankenberger & Benjam, 2020. "Agricultural impacts of climate change in Indiana and potential adaptations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2005-2027, December.
    17. Moon, Wanki, 2018. "The Lack of Dynamic Gains from Trade in Agriculture: Implications for Governing Agricultural Trade," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266613, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    18. Moon, Wanki, 2010. "Multifunctional Agriculture, Protectionism, And Prospect Of Trade Liberalization," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 33(2), pages 1-33, July.
    19. Vanessa Rayner & Emily Laing & Jamie Hall, 2011. "Developments in Global Food Prices," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 15-22, March.
    20. Keith Fuglie & David Schimmelpfennig, 2010. "Introduction to the special issue on agricultural productivity growth: a closer look at large, developing countries," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 169-172, June.
    21. Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Knowledge, Technology and Innovations for a Bio-based Economy: Lessons from the Past, Challenges for the Future," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(3), pages 1-34, December.
    22. Alston, Julian M. & Pardey, Philip G. & Ruttan, Vernon W., 2008. "Research Lags Revisited: Concepts and Evidence from U.S. Agriculture," Staff Papers 50091, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Productivity Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies;
    All these keywords.

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