IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uerssr/278253.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimation and Evaluation of Economic Community Wheat Export Subsidies

Author

Listed:
  • Liapis, Peter S.

Abstract

This report uses Granger's notion of causality to examine the relationship between the EC export subsidies and U.S. wheat export prices. The hypothesis that the EC's per unit export subsidy does not "cause" U.S., world, or EC export prices in the short run cannot be rejected, nor can the hypothesis be rejected that the U.S. or the world wheat price does not "cause" the per unit wheat subsidy. The results suggest a one-way causal relationship between EC exports and EC export price, but neither the export volume nor the per unit subsidy "cause" U.S. wheat export prices. The hypothesis that EC wheat exports are not caused by U.S. export prices is rejected, but causation is one directional without feedback; EC exports do not cause U.S. export prices. In determining the level of the monthly per unit subsidy granted, the EC responds to changes in the price of U.S. corn, but not to changes in the price of U.S. wheat, indicating that EC wheat competes with feed grains rather than U.S. wheat. The refund level also depends upon the ECU-U.S. dollar exchange rate. A 10-percent devaluation of the dollar relative to the ECU results in a 15-percent increase in the maximum wheat subsidy.

Suggested Citation

  • Liapis, Peter S., 1989. "Estimation and Evaluation of Economic Community Wheat Export Subsidies," Staff Reports 278253, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278253
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278253
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/278253/files/ers-report-426.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.278253?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William H. Meyers & Michael D. Helmar & S. Devadoss, 1986. "FAPRI Trade Model for the Soybean Sector: Specification, Estimation, and Validation," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 86-sr2, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Thursby, Jerry G, 1981. "A Test Strategy for Discriminating between Autocorrelation and Misspecification in Regression Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 117-123, February.
    3. Antle, J., 1984. "Dynamics, Causality, And Agricultural Productivity," Working Papers 225788, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February.
    5. Gary P. Sampson & Alexander J. Yeats, 1977. "An Evaluation of the Common Agricultural Policy as a Barrier Facing Agricultural Exports to the European Economic Community," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(1), pages 99-106.
    6. Robert G. Chambers & Richard E. Just, 1981. "Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on U.S. Agriculture: A Dynamic Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(1), pages 32-46.
    7. Paul R. Johnson & Thomas Grennes & Marie Thursby, 1979. "Trade Models with Differentiated Products," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(1), pages 120-127.
    8. Anderson, Kym & Tyers, Rodney, 1984. "European Community Grain and Meat Policies: Effects on International Prices, Trade and Welfare," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 11(4), pages 367-394.
    9. Philip C. Abbott, 1979. "Modeling International Grain Trade with Government Controlled Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(1), pages 22-31.
    10. Grennes, Thomas, 1985. "A Bibliography On The Economics Of World Grain Trade," Department of Economics and Business - Archive 259744, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    12. Haley, Stephen L., 1988. "Targeting Of U.S. Agricultural Export Subsidies: A Theoretical Analysis," Staff Reports 278018, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    13. Spreen, Thomas H. & Shonkwiler, John Scott, 1981. "Causal Relationships In The Fed Cattle Market," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-5, July.
    14. Philip C. Abbott, 1979. "The Role of Government Interference in International Commodity Trade Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(1), pages 135-140.
    15. Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1979. "The Casual Causal Relationship between Money and Income: Some Caveats for Time Series Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(4), pages 521-533, November.
    16. Bishop, Robert V., 1979. "The Construction and Use of Causality Tests," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 31(4), pages 1-6, October.
    17. Tyers, Rodney, 1985. "International Impacts of protection: model structure and results for FC agricultural policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 219-251.
    18. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1984. "How Reliable Are Simple, Single Equation Specifications of Import Demand?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 120-128, February.
    19. Paul R. Johnson & Thomas Grennes & Marie Thursby, 1977. "Devaluation, Foreign Trade Controls, and Domestic Wheat Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(4), pages 619-627.
    20. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Sharples, Jerry A., 1984. "Japanese and European Community Agricultural Trade Policies: Some U.S. Strategies," Foreign Agricultural Economic Report (FAER) 305192, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    21. Alexander H. Sarris & John Freebairn, 1983. "Endogenous Price Policies and International Wheat Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(2), pages 214-224.
    22. Belongia, Michael T. & Dickey, David A., 1982. "Prefiltering and Causality Tests," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 34(4), pages 1-5, October.
    23. Koester, Ulrich, 1982. "Policy options for the grain economy of the European Community: implications for developing countries," Research reports 35, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    24. Colin Carter & Andrew Schmitz, 1979. "Import Tariffs and Price Formation in the World Wheat Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(3), pages 517-522.
    25. Harry de Gorter & Karl D. Meilke, 1987. "The EEC's Wheat Price Policies and International Trade in Differentiated Products," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(2), pages 223-229.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ballenger, Nicole S., 1990. "Export Enhancement, Exporting Firms, And Efficiency Of International Commodity Markets," 1990 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Vancouver, Canada 270895, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Denbaly, Massoud Said Mark, 1984. "U. S. monetary policy and the exchange rate: effects on the world coarse grain market," ISU General Staff Papers 198401010800008753, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Sarker, Rakhal, 1990. "Testing Causality in Economics: A Review," Department of Agricultural Economics and Business 258629, University of Guelph.
    3. Liu, Zong-Shin, 1989. "Monetary policy, exchange rate, and effects on US wheat trade and domestic market in an imperfect competition framework," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010216, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Mahama, Ramatu, 1985. "A stochastic simulation of the impact of price insulation policies on world wheat market stability," ISU General Staff Papers 198501010800008868, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Dawson, John W., 2003. "Causality in the freedom-growth relationship," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 479-495, September.
    6. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Webb, Alan J. & Morey, Arthur & Sharples, Jerry A., 1984. "Impacts Of Policy On U.S. Agricultural Trade," Staff Reports 277627, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. JONATHAN D. JONES & NASIR M. KHIUl, 1988. "Money Growth, Inflation, and Causality (EmpiricalEvidence for Pakistan, 1973-1985)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 45-58.
    8. Coyle, Barry & Chambers, Robert G. & Schmitz, Andrew, 1986. "Economic Gains from Agricultural Trade: A Review and Bibliography," Miscellaneous Publications 319990, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    9. D. MacLaren, 1991. "Agricultural Trade Policy Analysis And International Trade Theory: A Review Of Recent Developments," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 250-297, September.
    10. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Tessier, David, 1997. "La causalité entre la monnaie et le revenu : une analyse fondée sur un modèle VARMA-échelon," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(1), pages 351-366, mars-juin.
    11. Van der Sluis, Evert, 1988. "A nonlinear multicountry multicommodity spatial equilibrium model with an application," ISU General Staff Papers 1988010108000018153, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Lavoie, Nathalie, 2001. "Price Discrimination In The Context Of Vertical Differentiation: A Modeling Approach For Wheat Exports," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20603, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Spreen, Thomas H. & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 1981. "Causal Relationships in the Fed Cattle Market," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 149-153, July.
    14. Reimer, Jeffrey J. & Stiegert, Kyle W., 2006. "Evidence on Imperfect Competition and Strategic Trade Theory," Staff Paper Series 498, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    15. René Capitelli, 1985. "Eine empirische Untersuchung über den Zusammenhang von kurz-, mittel- und langfristigen schweizerischen Zinssätzen," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 121(I), pages 1-22, March.
    16. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    17. Burakov, D., 2016. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Prices for Agricultural Commodities: Empirical Evidence from Russia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, June.
    18. Urmee Khan & Robert Lieli, 2010. "Information Processing in Prediction Markets: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 201426, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    19. Jonathan B. Hill, 2005. "Causation Delays and Causal Neutralization up to Three Steps Ahead: The Money-Output Relationship Revisited," Econometrics 0503016, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Mar 2005.
    20. Vanzetti, David & Kennedy, John O.S., 1989. "Optimal Retaliation in International Commodity Markets," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(01-02-03), pages 1-25, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.