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The Impact of Japan’s Trade Agreements and Safeguard Renegotiation on U.S. Access to Japan’s Beef Market

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  • Sabala, Ethan
  • Davis, Eric

Abstract

From December 2018 to January 2021, Japan entered into four trade agreements (TAs) with regions that, collectively, have supplied more than 98.5 percent of Japan’s beef imports every year for at least the last 10 years. These TAs include annual reductions in Japan’s tariff rates to the respective trade partners for beef products and changes to Japan’s beef safeguards, which may generate large changes in the composition of Japan’s market for these products. This study utilizes a global economic model to estimate the impacts of these TAs on Japan’s beef market 5 and 10 years in the future. After 10 years, the model estimates that Japan’s production of beef products will have decreased by 17.2 percent, and imports will have increased by 26.6 percent. Most of the import increases are estimated to come from the United States and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) countries whose beef export values to Japan see an estimated increase of $413.8 million and $541.0 million, respectively. These impacts are dependent, however, on whether Japan’s beef import safeguards are triggered.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabala, Ethan & Davis, Eric, 2023. "The Impact of Japan’s Trade Agreements and Safeguard Renegotiation on U.S. Access to Japan’s Beef Market," Economic Research Report 338953, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:338953
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.338953
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Knight, Russell & Taylor, Hannah & Hahn, William & Teran, Angel & Haley, Mildred & Grossen, Grace & Valcu-Lisman, Adriana & Cornelius, Margaret, 2022. "Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: September 2022," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 2022(Livestock), September.
    2. Yang, Seung-Ryong & Koo, Won W., 1994. "Japanese Meat Import Demand Estimation With The Source Differentiated Aids Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Knight, Russell & Taylor, Hannah & Hahn, William & Teran, Angel & Haley, Mildred & Grossen, Grace & Valcu-Lisman, Adriana & Cornelius, Margaret, 2022. "Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: August 2022," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 2022(Livestock), August.
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;
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