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Sobre O Valor Econômico Do Sistema De Identificação Animal Dos Eua (Nais): Notícias A Respeito Do Mau Da Vaca Louca Afetam O Consumo De Carnes?

Listed author(s):
  • Resende Filho, Moises de Andrade
  • Buhr, Brian L.

Esse artigo investiga os efeitos de notícias a respeito do mau da vaca louca ou BSE sobre o consumo das carnes bovina, suína e de aves nos EUA. Presume-se que o sistema nacional de identificação animal (NAIS) poderia em tese atenuar a percepção de risco dos consumidores sobre contrair o mau da vaca louca ao consumir carnes. Sistemas de equações de demanda são estimados incorporando-se, como proxy da percepção de risco do consumidor, três séries de índices de segurança do alimento separadamente construídos para as carnes bovina, suína e de aves considerando-se notícias veiculadas sobre BSE ou mau da vaca louca na imprensa escrita. Essas séries de índices são construídos somando-se o número de referências nos principais jornais norte americanos à problemas de food safety relacionados com cada uma das carnes. Utiliza-se o melhor modelo estimado, escolhido com base em testes de especificação, para se construir três cenários simulando-se respectivamente os casos em que o NAIS não está implementado, está implementado apenas para bovinos, e está implementado para suínos e bovinos. Utilizando-se as diferenças entre as receitas estimadas para cada cenário e para cada tipo de carne como uma medida do potencial ganho advindo da implementação do NAIS, conclui-se que o impacto do mau da vaca louca sobre o consumo de carnes nos EUA seria suficiente para cobrir os custos com a implementação do NAIS. Naturalmente, esse resultado fica condicionado a quanto dos ganhos com o NAIS seriam transmitidos aos pecuaristas que são aqueles que, em última instância, arcarão com os custos de implementação e manutenção do NAIS.----------------------------------------------This article investigates the willingness to pay for the National Animal Identification System (NAIS) in the US. We assume that with the NAIS in place, consumers’ concerns about Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) or mad cow disease will be reduced and by inference consumers will be willing to pay for the NAIS. To estimate this level of willingness to pay a generalized almost ideal demand system including beef, pork and poultry is estimated, including indexes of perception of BSE based on news coverage of BSE in the U.S. We found that while news indexes of BSE were not individually significant, that they were jointly significant in test of preferred models. Using the preferred model, we constructed three scenarios on the basis of hypothesized impacts of the NAIS on consumers' food safety concerns about meat. Our conclusion is that the impact of BSE on consumer demand for meat was in itself sufficient to cover previously estimated costs of implementing the NAIS. However, it does so at the expense of pork and poultry which lose consumption relative to beef if the NAIS reduces consumers concerns as assumed. Other disease and pathogen potential would be expected to further enhance its value.

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Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil with number 112719.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:112719
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  1. Verbeke, Wim & Ward, Ronald W., 2001. "A fresh meat almost ideal demand system incorporating negative TV press and advertising impact," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 359-374, September.
  2. Giancarlo Moschini & Daniele Moro & Richard D. Green, 1994. "Maintaining and Testing Separability in Demand Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(1), pages 61-73.
  3. Mario Mazzocchi & Gianluca Stefani & Spencer J. Henson, 2004. "Consumer Welfare and the Loss Induced by Withholding Information: The Case of BSE in Italy," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 41-58.
  4. Douglas Fisher & Adrian R. Fleissig & Apostolos Serletis, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Flexible Demand System Functional Forms," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Money And The Economy, chapter 13, pages 247-277 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  5. Nicholas E. Piggott & Thomas L. Marsh, 2004. "Does Food Safety Information Impact U.S. Meat Demand?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(1), pages 154-174.
  6. Italianer, Alexander, 1985. "A small-sample correction for the likelihood ratio test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 315-317.
  7. Nicholas E. Piggott & James A. Chalfant & Julian M. Alston & Garry R. Griffith, 1996. "Demand Response to Advertising in the Australian Meat Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 268-279.
  8. Alston, Julian M. & Chalfant, James A. & Piggott, Nicholas E., 2001. "Incorporating demand shifters in the Almost Ideal demand system," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 73-78, January.
  9. Michael R. Thomsen & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2001. "Market Incentives for Safe Foods: An Examination of Shareholder Losses from Meat and Poultry Recalls," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 526-538.
  10. Bailey, DeeVon & Slade, Jeremy, 2004. "Factors Influencing Support For A National Animal Identification System In The United States," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20293, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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