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Environmental Stressors Can Intensify the Impacts of Pandemics on Earth’s Natural Resources and Global Food Systems

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Listed:
  • Haqiqi, Iman
  • Grogan, Danielle S.
  • Bahalou Horeh, Marziyeh
  • Liu, Jing
  • Baldos, Uris Lantz
  • Hertel, Thomas

Abstract

This study estimates the likely impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic when combined with environmental stressors. We identify the conditions under which a combination of economic recession and drought conditions leads to intensified food insecurity. We also identify which regions are more influenced by other regions through changes in other parts of the world. We integrate SIMPLE (Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment) with WBM (Water Balance Model). The WBM projections show changes in the hydrological supply of water resources and agronomic demand for water. The SIMPLE model provides agricultural production, food security, and caloric nutrition outcomes. It also determines the irrigation water demand around the world. The prices of crops, livestock, and processed food commodities are determined considering the international trade of agricultural products. In an interconnected world, water-scarce regions are expected to import water-intensive commodities from relatively water-abundant regions. However, the degree of scarcity depends on availability relative to demand. We consider the changes in water supply relative to the changes in water demand in case of water scarcity combined with the economic lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Haqiqi, Iman & Grogan, Danielle S. & Bahalou Horeh, Marziyeh & Liu, Jing & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Hertel, Thomas, 2021. "Environmental Stressors Can Intensify the Impacts of Pandemics on Earth’s Natural Resources and Global Food Systems," Conference papers 333278, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333278
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    2. Camilo Mora & Daniele Spirandelli & Erik C. Franklin & John Lynham & Michael B. Kantar & Wendy Miles & Charlotte Z. Smith & Kelle Freel & Jade Moy & Leo V. Louis & Evan W. Barba & Keith Bettinger & Ab, 2018. "Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(12), pages 1062-1071, December.
    3. Baldos, Uris Lantz C. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2014. "Global food security in 2050: the role of agricultural productivity and climate change," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), October.
    4. Villoria, Nelson B. & Liu, Jing, 2018. "Using spatially explicit data to improve our understanding of land supply responses: An application to the cropland effects of global sustainable irrigation in the Americas," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 411-419.
    5. Haqiqi, Iman & Bahalou Horeh, Marziyeh, 2021. "Assessment of COVID-19 impacts on U.S. counties using the immediate impact model of local agricultural production (IMLAP)," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    6. repec:wbk:wbpubs:33748 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bahalou Horeh, Marziyeh & Haqiqi, Iman, 2020. "Impacts of Economic Growth and Depression in the US, China, and India on Global Land and Water Resources," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304526, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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