The economic consequences for the UK and the EU of completing the Single Market

The construction of the European Union has always relied first and foremost on a gradual economic integration process. Assessing the economic consequences of the European Union is therefore central to measure the benefits of the Union for its citizens and businesses. At a time where EU countries are pulling together diplomatic resources in an attempt to better joined up foreign policies, and after more than 50 years of peace between the member of the European Union previously called the European Economic Community, economic benefits can certainly not be seen as the only reason for membership, but they remain a fundamental element of this choice. Nowhere else than in the United Kingdom the discussion around European Union membership is more vivid. An accurate assessment of the consequences of the membership for the UK is therefore central for this discussion to take place on a robust basis. The purpose of the study is to contribute to such a sound assessment. It focuses on the consequences for the European Union and the United Kingdom of completing the European Single Market. It also assesses the result for a country like the UK not to take part in further steps of that process. After a presentation of the context and the objectives of the study (section 1), a literature review presents the type of gains expected from the Single Market and details the previous analyses on this subject (section 2). The third section presents the methodology used building on the most advanced economic tools and databases available. The fourth section details the different scenario simulated with the General Equilibrium model MIRAGE. The last section comments in detail the results of the different scenarios for the EU and the UK economies.