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Do Farmers Hedge Optimally or by Habit? A Bayesian Partial-Adjustment Model of Farmer Hedging


  • Dorfman, Jeffrey H.
  • Karali, Berna


Hedging is one of the most important risk management decisions that farmers make and has a potentially large role in the level of profit eventually earned from farming. Using panel data from a survey of Georgia farmers that recorded their hedging decisions for four years on three crops we examine the role of habit, demographics, farm characteristics, and information sources on the hedging decisions made by 106 different farmers. We find that the role of habit varies widely. Information sources are shown to have significant and large effects on the chosen hedge ratios. The farmer's education level, attitude toward technology adoption, farm profitability, and the ratio of acres owned to acres farmed also play important roles in hedging decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Karali, Berna, 2008. "Do Farmers Hedge Optimally or by Habit? A Bayesian Partial-Adjustment Model of Farmer Hedging," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37596, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccest:37596

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Koop, Gary & Tobias, Justin L., 2006. "Semiparametric Bayesian inference in smooth coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 283-315, September.
    2. Holt, Matthew T & Goodwin, Barry K, 1997. "Generalized Habit Formation in an Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System: An Application to Meat Expenditures in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 293-320.
    3. Joost M.E. Pennings & Raymond M. Leuthold, 2000. "The Role of Farmers' Behavioral Attitudes and Heterogeneity in Futures Contracts Usage," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 908-919.
    4. Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Pennings, Joost M.E. & Garcia, Philip, . "Is Hedging a Habit? Hedging Ratio Determination of Cotton Producers," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia.
    5. Pennings, Joost M. E. & Garcia, Philip, 2004. "Hedging behavior in small and medium-sized enterprises: The role of unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 951-978, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bedek, Željka & Njavro, Mario, 2016. "Risks and Competitiveness in Agriculture with Emphasis on Wine Sector in Croatia," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 10(1).

    More about this item


    Bayesian econometrics; hedging decisions; habit formation; information sources; Agricultural Finance;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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