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Global water demand projections: past, present and future

Author

Listed:
  • Amarasinghe, Upali A.
  • Smakhtin, Vladimir

Abstract

A review of global water demand projections (WDPs) show substantial overpredictions or under-predictions. The pre-1990 WDPs, with population as the main driver of change, overpredicted current water use by 20 to 130%. The post-1990 WDPs, with sophisticated modeling frameworks, show substantial underestimation under the ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios and are more downward biased under sustainable scenarios. Overall, the value of long-term country-level projections in global WDPs is inadequate for local water resource planning. To increase the accuracy and value of global WDPs, future WDPs should take into account the spatial variation and influence of rapidly changing key exogenous and endogenous drivers of water demand in different sectors across and within countries, and provide a sensitivity analysis of projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Smakhtin, Vladimir, 2014. "Global water demand projections: past, present and future," IWMI Reports 201006, International Water Management Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iwmirp:201006
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.201006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. A. Narayanamoorthy & N. Devika & M. Bhattarai, 2016. "More Crop and Profit per Drop of Water: Drip Irrigation for Empowering Distressed Small Farmers," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 5(1), pages 83-90, January.
    3. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas W. & Lammers, Richard & Prusevich, Alexander & Baldos, Uris Lantz C. & Grogan, Danielle S. & Frolking, Steve, "undated". "Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Security and Land Use," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258118, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas & Lammers, Richard & Prusevich, Alexander & Baldos, Uris & Grogan, Danielle & Frolking, Steve, 2016. "Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Production and Land Use," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235503, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Phong Tung Nguyen & Duong Hai Ha & Abolfazl Jaafari & Huu Duy Nguyen & Tran Van Phong & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Indra Prakash & Hiep Van Le & Binh Thai Pham, 2020. "Groundwater Potential Mapping Combining Artificial Neural Network and Real AdaBoost Ensemble Technique: The DakNong Province Case-study, Vietnam," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-20, April.
    6. Kusum Pandey & Shiv Kumar & Anurag Malik & Alban Kuriqi, 2020. "Artificial Neural Network Optimized with a Genetic Algorithm for Seasonal Groundwater Table Depth Prediction in Uttar Pradesh, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-24, October.
    7. Prem Chandra Pandey & Manish Pandey, 2023. "Highlighting the role of agriculture and geospatial technology in food security and sustainable development goals," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 3175-3195, October.
    8. David D. J. Antia, 2016. "ZVI (Fe 0 ) Desalination: Stability of Product Water," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-47, March.
    9. Caldera, Upeksha & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Strengthening the global water supply through a decarbonised global desalination sector and improved irrigation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    10. Amos Arowoshegbe & Francis Emeni & Emmanuel Uniamikogbo, 2018. "Impact Of Water Accounting On Water Supply In Nigeria," International Journal of Contemporary Accounting Issues-IJCAI (formerly International Journal of Accounting & Finance IJAF), The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN), vol. 7(2), pages 160-183.
    11. Yufeng Luo & Seydou Traore & Xinwei Lyu & Weiguang Wang & Ying Wang & Yongyu Xie & Xiyun Jiao & Guy Fipps, 2015. "Medium Range Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting by Using ANN and Public Weather Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3863-3876, August.
    12. Phong Tung Nguyen & Duong Hai Ha & Huu Duy Nguyen & Tran Van Phong & Phan Trong Trinh & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Hiep Van Le & Binh Thai Pham & Lanh Si Ho & Indra Prakash, 2020. "Improvement of Credal Decision Trees Using Ensemble Frameworks for Groundwater Potential Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-28, March.
    13. Narayanamoorthy, A., 2018. "Managing farm risks by adopting Micro-Irrigation: Evidences from different crops," Indian Journal of Agricultural Marketing, Indian Society of Agricultural Marketing, vol. 32(3).
    14. Xiao-Jun Wang & Jian-Yun Zhang & Shamsuddin Shahid & Wei Xie & Chao-Yang Du & Xiao-Chuan Shang & Xu Zhang, 2018. "Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 911-924, April.
    15. Nassima Amiri & Rachid Lahlali & Said Amiri & Moussa EL Jarroudi & Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza & Mohammed Messouli, 2021. "Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-23, October.

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