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Accountability, Credibility, Transparency and Stabilization Policy in the Eurosystem

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  • Cukierman, Alex

Abstract

This paper surveys and evaluates alternative views regarding the desirable combination of accountability, credibility and transparency in the newly created ECB, including recent controversies regarding publication of minutes, Council member votes and ECB forecasts. The paper shows that premature publication of central bank forecasts reduces the ability of the bank to engage in stabilization policy while maintaining inflation reasonably close to its inflation objective. This is demonstrated for an economy in which the transmission mechanism is characterized by a conventional, expectations' augmented Phillips relation. When the transmission mechanism operates via a Keynesian real interest rate channel (of the type used in a number of econometric models, and compactly summarized in Svensson (1997a)) premature publication of forecasts does not affect expected social welfare provided only price stability and stabilization policy matter. But when (due, possibly, to detrimental effects of interest rate variability on financial stability) social welfare is also negatively related to interest rate variability, premature publication of forecasts, again, reduces expected social welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Cukierman, Alex, 2000. "Accountability, Credibility, Transparency and Stabilization Policy in the Eurosystem," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275640, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:isfiwp:275640
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/275640/files/TEL-AVIV-FSWP-277.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Haan, Jakob, 1997. "The European Central Bank: Independence, Accountability and Strategy: A Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 93(3-4), pages 395-426, December.
    2. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. " Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 337-361, September.
    3. Eijffinger, S. & De Hann, J., 1995. "The Political Economy of Central Bank Independence," Papers 9587, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lavan Mahadeva & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "The role of short-run inflation targets and forecasts in disinflation," Bank of England working papers 167, Bank of England.
    2. Geraats, P. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2006. "Does Central Bank Transparancy Reduce Interest Rates?," Discussion Paper 2006-11, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Winkler, Bernhard, 2000. "Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making," Working Paper Series 0026, European Central Bank.
    4. Carl E. Walsh, 2002. "Are contemporary central banks transparent about economic models and objectives and what difference does it make? - commentary," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 37-46.
    5. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Geraats, Petra M., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, March.
    6. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2007. "Central Bank transparency in theory and practice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 760-789, December.
    7. Gruener Hans Peter & Hayo Bernd & Hefeker Carsten, 2009. "Unions, Wage Setting and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, October.
    8. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 99-118.
    9. Siklos, Pierre L., 2000. "Monetary policy transparency, public commentary, and market perceptions about monetary policy in Canada," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. TUYSUZ, Sukriye, 2007. "Central Bank transparency and the U.S. interest rates level and volatility response to U.S. news," MPRA Paper 5217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2008. "Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 718-742, April.
    12. Pearlman, Joseph G., 2005. "Central bank transparency and private information in a dynamic macroeconomic model," Working Paper Series 455, European Central Bank.
    13. Bernd Hayo & Hans Peter Gruner & Carsten Hefeker, 2004. "Monetary policy uncertainty and unionized labour markets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    14. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2003. "Three Models of Imperfect Transparency in Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4117, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2015. "Three different approaches to transparency in monetary policy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(3), pages 277-300, December.
    16. Carl E. Walsh, 2001. "Transparency in monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep7.
    17. Menguy, Séverine, 2006. "Les limites du cadre institutionnel européen," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 82(3), pages 395-418, septembre.
    18. Eijffinger, Sylvester & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2007. "Central Bank forecasts and disclosure policy: Why it pays to be optimistic," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 30-50, March.
    19. Seth B. Carpenter, 2004. "Transparency and monetary policy: what does the academic literature tell policymakers?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    20. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency : A Survey," Discussion Paper 2007-06, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    21. Geraats, Petra M., 2000. "Why Adopt Transparency? The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0hw7h7cp, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    22. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Lucjan T. Orlowski & Artur Radziwill, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transparency in the Inflation Targeting," Macroeconomics 0502025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Francesca Castellani, 2001. "Central Bank Independence and Accountability Under Complete Information," IHEID Working Papers 05-2001, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    24. Walsh, Carl E, 2003. " Accountability, Transparency, and Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 829-849, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General

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