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The Russian ban on EU agricultural imports: A bilateral extension of AGLINK-COSIMO

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  • Dillen, Koen

Abstract

Type On August 6 2014 the Russian Federation introduced a one year ban on imports into the Russian Federation of agricultural products, raw materials and food, originating from selected countries including the EU. This paper provides an initial assessment of the potential impact of this import ban on EU agricultural markets. Furthermore it provides an insight in the shifting trade patterns and price effects at EU, Russian and world level. We use the Aglink-Cosimo model, a recursive partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector. Its gross trade specification is problematic for the study of bilateral trade. Therefore the model was extended with an ad hoc incorporation of bilateral trade. The initial results show that the impact for the EU remains rather limited as the EU can divert a considerable part of its trade with Russia to other markets. The impact on the Russian market is however expected to be considerable as imports can't be easily substituted and domestic production has problems to expand productions significantly within the timeframe of the ban.

Suggested Citation

  • Dillen, Koen, 2015. "The Russian ban on EU agricultural imports: A bilateral extension of AGLINK-COSIMO," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211574, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:211574
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/211574/files/Dillen-The%20Russian%20ban%20on%20EU%20agricultural%20imports-853.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nolte, Stephan, 2006. "The application of spatial models in the analysis of bilateral trade flows: An alternative to the Armington approach for the world sugar market," Working Paper Series 10288, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    2. Brenton, Paul & Saborowski, Christian & Staritz, Cornelia & Von Uexkull, Erik, 2011. "Assessing the adjustment implications of trade policy changes using the Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool (TRIST)," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 249-276, April.
    3. Peter Lloyd & Xiao-guang Zhang, 2006. "The Armington Model," Staff Working Papers 0602, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Duric, I. & Glauben, T. & Zaric, V., 2018. "Impact of the Russian agricultural import ban on the Serbian pork exports and domestic price development along the pork value chain," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277201, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Meyers, William H. & Schroeder, Kateryna G., 2016. "Commodity markets and trade to 2025: What is driving these changes?," 155th Seminar, September 19-21, 2016, Kiev, Ukraine 245172, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; International Relations/Trade;

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