IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jouafr/v8y2021i2d10.2991_jat.k.211011.001.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

ECOWAS and AfCFTA: Potential Short-Run Impact of a Draft ECOWAS Tariff Offer

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Lunenborg

    (The South Centre)

  • Thomas Roberts

    (The South Centre)

Abstract

This study provides an ex ante short-run impact analysis of tariff liberalisation in the context of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) customs union regarding tariff revenue and import values. As with other customs union on the continent, ECOWAS negotiates within the AfCFTA as a bloc (including Mauritania). Tariff revenue losses for a scenario with 97% tariff liberalisation (Categories A and B) amount to around USD $262.7 million at the end of the implementation period, representing 12.5% of total tariff revenue, and USD $201.9 million for a scenario with 90% tariff liberalisation (Category A), representing 9.7% of total tariff revenue. This is more than the USD $54 million inferred from estimates by the World Bank (2020), which assumed 90% tariff liberalisation. Tariff losses for ECOWAS are likely to be larger than previously estimated, mainly because ECOWAS negotiates as a bloc and because its selection of sensitive sectors exempted from liberalisation (Category C) is not optimised at the country level to minimise revenue loss. Import increases on account of ECOWAS tariff concessions under the AfCFTA are estimated to be relatively small (1.3–1.8% total increase). As such, the main worry of ECOWAS policymakers, on aggregate, should not be a deluge of African imports competing with regional or domestic production. Further research is needed to understand the distributional impact among ECOWAS countries and on the benefits of other African countries opening market access to ECOWAS exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Lunenborg & Thomas Roberts, 2021. "ECOWAS and AfCFTA: Potential Short-Run Impact of a Draft ECOWAS Tariff Offer," Journal of African Trade, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 103-114, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jouafr:v:8:y:2021:i:2:d:10.2991_jat.k.211011.001
    DOI: 10.2991/jat.k.211011.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.2991/jat.k.211011.001
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2991/jat.k.211011.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davies, Rob & Rattso, Jorn & Torvik, Ragnar, 1998. "Short-Run Consequences of Trade Liberalization: A Computable General Equilibrium Model of Zimbabwe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 305-333, June.
    2. Dillen, Koen, 2015. "The Russian ban on EU agricultural imports: A bilateral extension of AGLINK-COSIMO," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211574, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Brenton, Paul & Saborowski, Christian & Staritz, Cornelia & von Uexkull, Erik, 2009. "Assessing the adjustment implications of trade policy changes using TRIST (tariff reform impact simulation tool)," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5045, The World Bank.
    4. Meysut Saygili & Ralph Peters & Christian Knebel, 2018. "African Continental Free Trade Area: Challenges and Opportunities of Tariff Reductions," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 82, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    5. Buffie,Edward F., 2001. "Trade Policy in Developing Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521004268, June.
    6. Buffie,Edward F., 2001. "Trade Policy in Developing Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521782234, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hippolyte Fofack & Andrew Mold, 2021. "The AfCFTA and African Trade—An Introduction to the Special Issue," Journal of African Trade, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 1-11, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buffie, Edward F. & Atolia, Manoj, 2012. "Trade, growth, and poverty in Zambia: Insights from a dynamic GE model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 211-229.
    2. Sajal Lahiri & Anjum Nasim, 2005. "Commercial Policy Reform in Pakistan: Opening up the Economy under Revenue Constraints," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(6), pages 723-739, November.
    3. Mary Amiti, 2011. "How the Sequence of Trade Liberalisation Affects Industrial Location," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume II, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. repec:idb:brikps:350 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Atolia, Manoj & Kurokawa, Yoshinori, 2016. "The impact of trade margins on the skill premium: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 895-915.
    6. Will Martin, 2002. "Outgrowing Resource Dependence: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 143, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Hoedoafia, Mabel Akosua, 2020. "On the Link between Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: Panel Data Evidence from Private Firms in Ghana," MPRA Paper 99568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Atolia, Manoj, 2007. "Trade liberalization and rising wage inequality in Latin America: Reconciliation with HOS theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 467-494, April.
    9. Martin, Will, 2005. "Outgrowing resource dependence theory and some recent developments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3482, The World Bank.
    10. Daniel Lederman & William F. Maloney, 2007. "Natural Resources : Neither Curse nor Destiny," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7183, September.
      • Anthony J. Venables & William Maloney & Ari Kokko & Claudio Bravo Ortega & Daniel Lederman & Roberto Rigobón & José De Gregorio & Jesse Czelusta & Shamila A. Jayasuriya & Magnus Blomström & L. Colin X, 2007. "Natural Resources: Neither Curse nor Destiny," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 59538 edited by William Maloney & Daniel Lederman, February.
    11. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2006. "Is The Industrial Policy Relevant In The 21st Century?," MPRA Paper 6643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Germaschewski, Yin, 2020. "Stabilization policy, infrastructure investment, and welfare in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 322-339.
    13. Andrzej Cieślik, 2005. "Wpływ przedsiębiorstw międzynarodowych na rynek pracy w kraju goszczącym," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 17-35.
    14. Daniel Lederman & William F. Maloney, 2007. "Natural Resources : Neither Curse nor Destiny," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7183, August.
    15. Manoj Atolia, 2003. "An OLG Model of Tax Evasion with Public Capital," Working Papers wp2003_04_01, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
    16. Robert Hamwey, 2005. "Expanding national policy space for development: Why the Multilateral Trading System must change," Development and Comp Systems 0511005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Manoj Atolia, 2010. "Public Investment, Tax Evasion, And The Welfare Effects Of A Tariff Reform," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(2), pages 219-239, April.
    18. Alexandros Sarris, 2014. "Trade, food and welfare," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 13, pages 325-352, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Spinesi, Luca, 2009. "Rent-seeking bureaucracies, inequality, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 244-257, November.
    20. Haaparanta, Pertti & Puhakka, Mikko, 2004. "Endogenous time preference, investment and development traps," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    21. Partha Sen, 2005. "Perfect Competition and the Keynesian Cross:Revisiting Tobin," Working papers 135, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jouafr:v:8:y:2021:i:2:d:10.2991_jat.k.211011.001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.atlantis-press.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.