Simulating Farm Household Poverty: From Passive Victims to Adaptive Agents
Existing microeconomic models for simulating poverty heavily rely on static projection from statistical inference. When used for simulation these models tend to conceive farm households as passive victims and thereby underestimate their resilience and adaptive capacity. Farming systems research has much to contribute to the research on poverty by bringing in a detailed understanding of farm household decision-making, which directly relates to their adaptive capacity. This paper presents a novel methodology to simulate poverty dynamics using a farming systems approach. The methodology is based on mathematical programming of farm households but adds three innovations: First, poverty levels are quantified by including a three-step budgeting system, including a savings model, a Working-Leser model, and an Almost Ideal Demand System. Second, the model is extended with a disinvestment model to simulate farm household coping strategies to food insecurity. Third, multi-agent systems are used to tailor each mathematical program to a real-world household and so to capture the heterogeneity of opportunities and constraints at the farm level as well as to quantify the distributional effects of change. An empirical application to Uganda illustrates the methodology. The method opens exciting new prospects for applying farming systems research and multi-agent systems to poverty analysis and the ex ante assessment of alternative policy interventions.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.iaae-agecon.org/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kathrin Happe, 2005. "Agricultural policies and farm structures - agent-based simulation and application to EU-policy reform," Others 0504011, EconWPA.
- Christiaensen, Luc & Scott, Christopher & Wodon, Quentin, 2002. "Poverty Measurement and Analysis," MPRA Paper 45362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Berger, Thomas, 2001. "Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: a simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes and policy analysis," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 245-260, September.
- Holden, Stein & Shiferaw, Bekele, 2004.
"Land degradation, drought and food security in a less-favoured area in the Ethiopian highlands: a bio-economic model with market imperfections,"
Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 31-49, January.
- Holden, Stein & Shiferaw, Bekele, 2004. "Land degradation, drought and food security in a less-favoured area in the Ethiopian highlands: a bio-economic model with market imperfections," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 30(1), January.
- Graham Pyatt, 2003. "An Alternative Approach to Poverty Analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 113-133.
- Johnson, Robin & Rossmiller, George Edward & Sandiford-Rossmiller, Frances, 2003. "Ag econ angst crisis revisited," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(2), June.
- Shiferaw T. Feleke & Richard L. Kilmer & Christina H. Gladwin, 2005. "Determinants of food security in Southern Ethiopia at the household level," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 351-363, November.
- Joachim von Braun, 2005. "Agricultural economics and distributional effects," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(s1), pages 1-20, 01.
- Balmann, Alfons, 1997. "Farm-Based Modelling of Regional Structural Change: A Cellular Automata Approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 85-108.
- Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
- Datt, Gaurav & Jolliffe, Dean, 2005. "Poverty in Egypt: Modeling and Policy Simulations," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 327-46, January.
- Hazell, P. B. R. & Roell, Ailsa, 1983. "Rural growth linkages: household expenditure patterns in Malaysia and Nigeria," Research reports 41, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Berger, Thomas, 2001. "Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: a simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes and policy analysis," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 25(2-3), September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae06:25479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.