IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaae11/114238.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stochastic Viability of Second Generation Biofuel Chains: Micro-economic Spatial Modeling in France

Author

Listed:
  • Bamiére, Laure
  • Martinet, Vincent
  • Gouel, Christophe
  • Le Cadre, Elodie

Abstract

Within an overall project to assess the ability of the agricultural sector to contribute to bioenergy production, we set out here to examine the economic and technological viability of a bioenergy facility in an uncertain economic context, using the stochastic viability approach. We consider two viability constraints: the facility demand for lignocellulosic feedstock has to be satisfied each year and the associated supply cost has to be lower than de profitability threshold of the facility. We assess the viability probability of various supplying strategies consisting in contracting a given share of the feedstock demand with perennial dedicated crops at the initial time and then in making up each year with annual dedicated crops or wood. The demand constraints and agricultural prices scenarios over the time horizon are introduced in an agricultural and forest biomass supply model, which in turns determines the supply cost per MWh and computes the viability probabilities of the various contract strategies. A sensibility analysis to agricultural prices at initial time is performed. Results show that when they are around or under the median (of the 1993–2007 prices), the strategy consisting in contracting 100% of the feedstock supply with perennial dedicated crops is the best one.

Suggested Citation

  • Bamiére, Laure & Martinet, Vincent & Gouel, Christophe & Le Cadre, Elodie, 2011. "Stochastic Viability of Second Generation Biofuel Chains: Micro-economic Spatial Modeling in France," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114238, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114238
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/114238/files/Bamiere_Laure_209.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stacie Beck, 2001. "Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in commodity spot prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 115-132.
    2. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Ballarin, A. & Vecchiato, D. & Tempesta, T. & Marangon, F. & Troiano, S., 2011. "Biomass energy production in agriculture: A weighted goal programming analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1123-1131, March.
    4. Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Paul Newbold & Anthony Rayner, 2007. "A Short Note on Updating the Grilli and Yang Commodity Price Index," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(1), pages 151-163.
    5. Philip J. Dawson & Ana I. Sanjuán & Ben White, 2006. "Structural Breaks and the Relationship between Barley and Wheat Futures Prices on the London International Financial Futures Exchange," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(4), pages 585-594.
    6. Kocoloski, Matt & Michael Griffin, W. & Scott Matthews, H., 2011. "Impacts of facility size and location decisions on ethanol production cost," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 47-56, January.
    7. Babcock, Bruce A. & Marette, Stéphan & Tréguer, David, 2011. "Opportunity for profitable investments in cellulosic biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 714-719, February.
    8. In, Francis & Inder, Brett, 1997. "Long‐run Relationships Between World Vegetable Oil Prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Issue 4), pages 1-16.
    9. Rozakis, S. & Sourie, J. -C., 2005. "Micro-economic modelling of biofuel system in France to determine tax exemption policy under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 171-182, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114238. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.