EU Dairy Quota Reform – AGMEMOD Scenario Analysis
This study provides an in-depth model based quantitative analysis of the implications of the dairy policy reform on the milk and dairy market as well as on other agricultural markets in the EU27, EU15, EU12 and the individual MS. The objectives of the study are threefold: 1. to assess the implications of changing policy and market conditions on EU agriculture with special emphasis on milk quota phasing out and export subsidy removal by using a modelling tool; 2. to carry out policy relevant scenarios reflecting deregulation (e.g. quota abolition), changes in quota and price levels, different types and levels of direct payments; and 3. to analyse the implications of policy reform scenarios and to draw appropriate policy recommendations. Based on an overview of the existing approaches used to analyse the dairy market, the necessary adjustments to the AGMEMOD model are developed. Projections are made under a baseline of no policy change for a time horizon of 10 years for selected individual MS, the EU15 in aggregate, EU12 in aggregate (12 MS from May 2004), and the EU27 in aggregate. This baseline is contrasted with a series of scenarios which involve an increase and eventual elimination of the EU milk quota. The increase in EU milk production under the scenarios is smaller than the increase in milk quota. Milk quota rents fall to zero relatively quickly due to rising input costs and falling milk prices. However, the milk price path under the scenarios is not hugely different to that of the baseline, so it can be said that the general international market conditions in dairy and animal feed are the main drivers of the observed outcomes. In some MS, expansion potential is quite strong and in such cases production continues to expand even after quotas are removed in those scenarios which involve a larger milk quota expansion in advance of its elimination.
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- Markus Lips & Peter Rieder, 2005. "Abolition of Raw Milk Quota in the European Union: A CGE Analysis at the Member Country Level," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 1-17.
- van Tongeren, Frank & van Meijl, Hans & Surry, Yves, 2001.
"Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment,"
Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 149-172, November.
- Tongeren, Frank van & Meijl, Hans van & Surry, Yves, 2001. "Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 26(2), pages -, November.
- Helming, John F.M. & Peerlings, Jack H.M., 2002. "The Impact of Milk Quota Abolishment on Dutch Agriculture and Economy: Applying an Agricultural Sector Model Integrated Into a Mixed Input-Output Model," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24911, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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