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The Next-11 and the BRICs: Are They the Future Markets for Agrifood Trade?

  • Cairns, Alexander P.
  • Meilke, Karl D.

In the mid-2000’s, Goldman Sachs identified two groups of emerging economies known as the BRICs and the Next-11. Primarily selected on the basis of having large populations, these countries were heralded as the growth centres of the future with the potential to stimulate increased demand for a wide range of commodities, including food. This study uses an import demand model to estimate how income influences per capita expenditure on agrifood imports in 63 countries. The findings suggest that as groups the BRICs and N-11 do not di↵er from other low, middle, or high income countries with respect to their import behaviour. However, disaggregation of the two groups reveals significantly larger expenditure elasticities for China, India, South Korea and Vietnam. A forecasting exercise reveals the capacity of income and population growth in China, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Korea and Vietnam to substantially increase their expenditure on imported agrifood products.

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Paper provided by Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network in its series Trade Policy Briefs with number 145971.

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Date of creation: Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:catptp:145971
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  1. Jason H. Grant & Dayton M. Lambert, 2008. "Do Regional Trade Agreements Increase Members' Agricultural Trade?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 765-782.
  2. Madden, David, 2006. "Sample Selection Versus Two-Part Models Revisited: The Case of Female Smoking and Drinking," Papers HRBWP23, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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  4. Zahoor Ul Haq & Karl Meilke & John Cranfield, 2013. "Selection bias in a gravity model of agrifood trade," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 331-360, March.
  5. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
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  7. Leung, S.F. & Yu, S., 1992. "On the Choice Between Sample Selection and Two-Part Models," RCER Working Papers 337, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  8. Zahoor Haq & Karl Meilke, 2010. "Do the BRICs and Emerging Markets Differ in their Agrifood Imports?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 1-14.
  9. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Puhani, Patrick A, 2000. " The Heckman Correction for Sample Selection and Its Critique," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, February.
  11. Cairns, Alexander P. & Meilke, Karl D., 2012. "The Next-11 and the BRICs: Are They the Future Markets for Agrifood Trade?," Working Papers 122737, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
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