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Advertising and Retail Promotion of Washington Apples: A Structural Latent Variable Approach to Promotion Evaluation

  • Richards, Timothy J.
  • Gao, Xiaoming
  • Patterson, Paul M.

"Commodity promotion" consists of many activities, each designed to contribute to a consumer's product knowledge or influence tastes. However, both knowledge and tastes are unobservable, or latent, variables influencing demand. This paper specifies a dynamic structural model of fresh fruit demand that treats promotion and other socioeconomic variables as "causal" variables influencing these latent variables. Estimating this state-space model using a Kalman filter approach provides estimates of both the system parameters and a latent variable series. The results show that these latent effects contribute positively to apple and other fruit consumption, while reducing banana consumption.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28547
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Paper provided by Arizona State University, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management in its series Working Papers with number 28547.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:ags:asumwp:28547
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Web page: http://www.east.asu.edu/msabr
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  1. Jonq-Ying Lee & James L. Seale & Pattana A. Jierwiriyapant, 1990. "Do trade agreements help US exports? A study of the Japanese citrus industry," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(5), pages 505-514.
  2. Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D., 1982. "Kalman filtering estimation of unobserved rational expectations with an application to the German hyperinflation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 255-284, November.
  3. Hui-Shung Chang & Henry Kinnucan, 1990. "Advertising and Structural Change in the Demand for Butter in Canada," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 38(2), pages 295-308, 07.
  4. Engle, Robert F. & Lilien, David M. & Watson, Mark, 1985. "A dymimic model of housing price determination," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 307-326, June.
  5. Alston, Julian M. & Chalfant, James A. & Christian, Jason E. & Meng, Erika C.H. & Piggott, Nicholas E., 1997. "The California Table Grape Commission's Promotion Program: An Evaluation," Monographs, University of California, Davis, Giannini Foundation, number 11932.
  6. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
  7. Pollak, Robert A & Wales, Terence J, 1980. "Comparison of the Quadratic Expenditure System and Translog Demand Systems with Alternative Specifications of Demographic Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(3), pages 595-612, April.
  8. Green, Richard D. & Carman, Hoy F. & McManus, Kathleen, 1991. "Some Empirical Methods Of Estimating Advertising Effects In Demand Systems: An Application To Dried Fruits," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(01), July.
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