Beyond natural disasters: Multi-dimensional risk perception and policy-based livestock insurance adoption in Western China

Livestock production has thus become a key pillar of rural revitalization and agricultural modernization. However, herders in China’s pastoral regions face significant risks from natural disasters, wildlife conflicts, and market fluctuations, which threaten income stability and sustainable development. Using survey data from 522 herder households in the Qilian Mountains, this study employs a Double-Hurdle model to examine how herders’ perceptions of natural disaster, wildlife conflict, and market risks affect their livestock insurance purchase decisions and payment amounts. The results reveal that a one-unit increase in overall risk perception raises the probability of purchasing insurance by 34.2% and increases insurance expenditure by 1,512.1 CNY 2 . Specifically, only natural disaster perception demonstrates a statistically significant effect on insurance expenditure: a one-unit increase in this perception raises the probability of purchasing insurance by 3.0% and increases expenditure by 242.9 CNY. Perceived market risk increases purchase probability by 6.2%, and wildlife conflict risk increases it by 2.9%. Regional heterogeneity is evident: Qinghai herders respond more strongly to natural disaster risks in determining insurance payment amount, whereas Gansu herders are more responsive in their purchase decisions. Across livestock types, natural disaster perception remains the dominant driver of insurance participation and expenditure for both cattle and sheep herders. These findings highlight the importance of tailoring policy-based livestock insurance to regional and behavioral contexts. Strengthening herders’ market risk awareness, improving insurance accessibility and trust, and aligning insurance with ecological conservation policies can enhance participation and promote sustainable pastoral livelihoods.