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Estimation of crop yield distribution and Insurance Premium using Shrinkage Estimator: A Hierarchical Bayes and Small Area Estimation Approach

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  • Awondo, Sebastain Nde
  • Datta, Gauri S.
  • Ramirez, Octavio A.
  • Fonsah, Esendugue Greg

Abstract

Obtaining reliable estimates of insurance premiums is a critical step in risk sharing and risk transfer necessary to ensure solvency and continuity in crop insurance programs. Challenges encountered in the estimation include dealing with aggregation bias from using county level yield averages as well as properly accounting for spatial and temporal heterogeneity. In this study, we associate some of these challenges as classical small area estimation (SAE) problems. We employ a hierarchical Bayes (HB) SAE to obtain design consistent expected county level yields and Group Risk Plan (GRP) premiums for corm farms in Illinois using quasi-simulated data. Preliminary results show little bias (< 10%) in estimated expected county yields in several counties investigated. We found wide variation in GRP, APH and basis risk across counties for similar level of coverage and scale. Results show that farmers could lower their GRP premiums by as much as 30% by carefully choosing a coverage level and scale combination.

Suggested Citation

  • Awondo, Sebastain Nde & Datta, Gauri S. & Ramirez, Octavio A. & Fonsah, Esendugue Greg, 2012. "Estimation of crop yield distribution and Insurance Premium using Shrinkage Estimator: A Hierarchical Bayes and Small Area Estimation Approach," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 126778, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:126778
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.126778
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vitor A. Ozaki & Sujit K. Ghosh & Barry K. Goodwin & Ricardo Shirota, 2008. "Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Agricultural Yield Data with an Application to Pricing Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 951-961.
    2. Roger Claassen & Richard E. Just, 2010. "Heterogeneity and Distributional Form of Farm-Level Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(1), pages 144-160.
    3. Ramirez, Octavio A. & McDonald, Tanya U. & Carpio, Carlos E., 2010. "A Flexible Parametric Family for the Modeling and Simulation of Yield Distributions," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(2), May.
    4. Alan P. Ker & Keith Coble, 2003. "Modeling Conditional Yield Densities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 291-304.
    5. Bruce J. Sherrick & Fabio C. Zanini & Gary D. Schnitkey & Scott H. Irwin, 2004. "Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 406-419.
    6. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
    7. Octavio A. Ramírez, 1997. "Estimation and Use of a Multivariate Parametric Model for Simulating Heteroskedastic, Correlated, Nonnormal Random Variables: The Case of Corn Belt Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 191-205.
    8. Sukant K. Misra & Jeannie Nelson, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Agricultural Time Series Models with Nonnormal Dependent Variables," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 1029-1040.
    9. Ramirez, Octavio & Colson, Greg, 2013. "Premium Estimation Inaccuracy and the Distribution of Crop Insurance Subsidies," SCC-76 Meeting, 2013, March 14-16, Pensacola, Florida 152130, SCC-76: Economics and Management of Risk in Agriculture and Natural Resources.
    10. Octavio A. Ramirez & Carlos A. Carpio, 2012. "Premium estimation inaccuracy and the actuarial performance of the US crop insurance program," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 72(1), pages 117-133, May.
    11. Richard E. Just & Rulon D. Pope, 1999. "Implications of Heterogeneity for Theory and Practice in Production Economics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(3), pages 711-718.
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    Cited by:

    1. Awondo, S. & Datta, G., 2018. "Performance of Farm Level Vs Area Level Crop Insurance," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277265, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    Keywords

    Farm Management; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty;
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