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Estimation and Use of a Multivariate Parametric Model for Simulating Heteroskedastic, Correlated, Nonnormal Random Variables: The Case of Corn Belt Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Yields

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  • Octavio A. Ramírez

Abstract

This study develops a multivariate, nonnormal density function that can accurately and separately account for skewness, kurtosis, heteroskedasticity, and the correlation among the random variables of interest. The statistical attributes of the underlying random variables and correlation processes are examined. The potential applications of this modeling tool are discussed and exemplified by analyzing and simulating Corn Belt corn, soybean, and wheat yields. While corn and soybean yields are found to be skewed and kurtotic and exhibit different variances through time, wheat yields appear normal but also heteroskedastic. A strong correlation is detected between corn and soybean yields. Copyright 1997, Oxford University Press.

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  • Octavio A. Ramírez, 1997. "Estimation and Use of a Multivariate Parametric Model for Simulating Heteroskedastic, Correlated, Nonnormal Random Variables: The Case of Corn Belt Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 191-205.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:79:y:1997:i:1:p:191-205
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243953
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    Cited by:

    1. Awondo, Sebastain Nde & Datta, Gauri S. & Ramirez, Octavio A. & Fonsah, Esendugue Greg, 2012. "Estimation of crop yield distribution and Insurance Premium using Shrinkage Estimator: A Hierarchical Bayes and Small Area Estimation Approach," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 126778, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Chuck Mason & Dermot J. Hayes & Sergio H. Lence, 2001. "Systemic Risk in U.S. Crop and Revenue Insurance Programs," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 01-wp266, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    3. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2008. "Shape Persistence in Elicited Subjective Crop Yield Probability Density Functions," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44128, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Goodwin, Barry K. & Roberts, Matthew C. & Coble, Keith H., 2000. "Measurement Of Price Risk In Revenue Insurance: Implications Of Distributional Assumptions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(01), July.
    5. Gregory Colson & Octavio A. Ramirez & Shengfei Fu, 2014. "Crop Insurance Savings Accounts: A Viable Alternative to Crop Insurance?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 527-545.
    6. Jindřich Špička, 2009. "The Risk Analysis in the Agricultural Enterprises using Earnings at Risk Method," Ekonomika a Management, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2009(3).
    7. Ghosh, Somali & Woodard, Joshua D. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2011. "Efficient Estimation of Copula Mixture Model: An Application to the Rating of Crop Revenue Insurance," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103738, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Kim, Kwansoo & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2003. "Technological change and risk management: an application to the economics of corn production," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 29(2), October.
    9. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2005. "Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24561, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Octavio A. Ramirez & Carlos A. Carpio, 2012. "Premium estimation inaccuracy and the actuarial performance of the US crop insurance program," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 72(1), pages 117-133, May.
    11. Mason, Chuck & Hayes, Dermot J. & Lence, Sergio H., 2003. "Systemic Risk in U.S. Crop Reinsurance Programs," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1944, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Carpio, Carlos E. & Rejesus, Roderick M., 2011. "Can Crop Insurance Premiums Be Reliably Estimated?," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 40(1), April.
    13. Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2008. "Application of Copulas to Estimation of Joint Crop Yield Distributions," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6264, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Zapata, Hector O. & Maradiaga, David Isaias & Pujula, Aude Liliana & Dicks, Michael R., 2011. "Recent Developments in Unit Root Tests and Historical Crop Yields," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103871, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Somarriba, Eduardo, 2000. "Risk And Returns Of Diversified Cropping Systems Under Nonnormal, Cross-, And Autocorrelated Commodity Price Structures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(02), December.
    16. Mason, Charles Edwin, IV, 2000. "Estimation and attenuation of reinsurance risk in the crop insurance market," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000013703, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Kim, Kwansoo & Lauer, Joseph G. & Klemme, Richard M. & Bland, William L., 2001. "An Economic Analysis Of Corn Yield, Corn Profitability, And Risk At The Edge Of The Corn Belt," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
    18. Fung, Man-Hoi, 1999. "Marketing specialty corn contracts under uncertainty in Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 1999010108000017643, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

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