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Premium Estimation Inaccuracy and the Actuarial Performance of the US Crop Insurance Program

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  • Ramirez, Octavio A.
  • Carpio, Carlos E.

Abstract

This article explores the impact of the likely levels of inaccuracy associated with two main types of premium estimation methods, under different sample sizes, on the actuarial performance of the US crop insurance program. The analyses are conducted under several plausible assumptions about the insurer versus the producers’ estimates for their actuarially fair premiums. Significant differences are found due to estimation method and sample size, with the currently used procedures resulting in the worse actuarial performance. Several conclusions and recommendations are provided that could markedly reduce the amount of public subsidies needed to keep this program solvent.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramirez, Octavio A. & Carpio, Carlos E., 2011. "Premium Estimation Inaccuracy and the Actuarial Performance of the US Crop Insurance Program," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 102463, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:102463
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harwood, Joy L. & Heifner, Richard G. & Coble, Keith H. & Perry, Janet E. & Somwaru, Agapi, 1999. "Managing Risk in Farming: Concepts, Research, and Analysis," Agricultural Economics Reports 34081, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Ramirez, Octavio A. & McDonald, Tanya U. & Carpio, Carlos E., 2010. "A Flexible Parametric Family for the Modeling and Simulation of Yield Distributions," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(02), May.
    3. Anderson, John D. & Harri, Ardian & Coble, Keith H., 2009. "Techniques for Multivariate Simulation from Mixed Marginal Distributions with Application to Whole-Farm Revenue Simulation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.
    4. Barry J. Barnett, 2000. "The U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 48(4), pages 539-551, December.
    5. Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Hart, Chad E., 2008. "Using a Farmer's Beta for Improved Estimation of Expected Yields," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(01), April.
    6. Alan P. Ker & Keith Coble, 2003. "Modeling Conditional Yield Densities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 291-304.
    7. Octavio A. Ramírez, 1997. "Estimation and Use of a Multivariate Parametric Model for Simulating Heteroskedastic, Correlated, Nonnormal Random Variables: The Case of Corn Belt Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 191-205.
    8. Octavio A. Ramírez & Tanya McDonald, 2006. "Ranking Crop Yield Models: A Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1105-1110.
    9. Bailey Norwood & Matthew C. Roberts & Jayson L. Lusk, 2004. "Ranking Crop Yield Models Using Out-of-Sample Likelihood Functions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1032-1043.
    10. Keith H. Coble & Thomas O. Knight & Rulon D. Pope & Jeffery R. Williams, 1996. "Modeling Farm-Level Crop Insurance Demand with Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 439-447.
    11. Roderick M. Rejesus & Barry K. Goodwin & Keith H. Coble & Thomas O. Knight, 2010. "Evaluation of the reference yield calculation method in crop insurance," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 70(3), pages 427-445, November.
    12. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Carpio, Carlos E. & Rejesus, Roderick M., 2011. "Can Crop Insurance Premiums Be Reliably Estimated?," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 40(1), April.
    13. Joseph W. Glauber, 2004. "Crop Insurance Reconsidered," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1179-1195.
    14. Alan P. Ker, 2001. "Private Insurance Company Involvement in the U.S. Crop Insurance Program," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 49(4), pages 557-566, December.
    15. Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
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    Cited by:

    1. Awondo, Sebastain Nde & Datta, Gauri S. & Ramirez, Octavio A. & Fonsah, Esendugue Greg, 2012. "Estimation of crop yield distribution and Insurance Premium using Shrinkage Estimator: A Hierarchical Bayes and Small Area Estimation Approach," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 126778, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Carpio, Carlos E. & Collart, Alba J., 2014. "Producer Welfare Implications of the RMA’s “Shrinkage” Crop Insurance Premium Estimator," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 168367, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Gregory Colson & Octavio A. Ramirez & Shengfei Fu, 2014. "Crop Insurance Savings Accounts: A Viable Alternative to Crop Insurance?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 527-545.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Subsidies; Crop Insurance Premium Estimation; Loss-Cost Procedures; Risk Management Agency; Financial Economics;

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