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Globalisation's Effects on World Agricultural Trade, 1960 to 2050

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  • Kym Anderson

    () (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

Abstract

Recent globalisation has been characterised by a decline in costs of cross-border trade in farm and other products. It has been driven primarily by the information and communication technology revolution and – in the case of farm products – by reductions in governmental distortions to agricultural production, consumption and trade. Both have boosted economic growth and reduced poverty globally, especially in Asia. The first but maybe not the second of these drivers will continue in coming decades. World food prices will depend also on whether (and if so by how much) farm productivity growth continues to outpace demand growth and to what extent diets in emerging economies move towards livestock and horticultural products at the expense of staples. Demand in turn will be driven by population and income growth, but also by crude oil prices if they remain at current historically high levels, since that will affect biofuel demand. Climate change mitigation policies and adaptation, water market developments, and market access standards particularly for transgenic foods will add to future production, price and trade uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson, 2010. "Globalisation's Effects on World Agricultural Trade, 1960 to 2050," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2010-11, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2010-11
    as

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    File URL: http://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/publications/present/CIES_DP1011.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. von Braun, Joachim & Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela, 2009. ""Land grabbing" by foreign investors in developing countries: Risks and opportunities," Policy briefs 13, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Schmitz, Christoph & Lotze-Campen, Hermann, 2011. "A Spatial Mathematical Model Analysis of the Linkage between Agricultural Trade and Deforestation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115993, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Kharrazi, Ali & Rovenskaya, Elena & Fath, Brian D. & Yarime, Masaru & Kraines, Steven, 2013. "Quantifying the sustainability of economic resource networks: An ecological information-based approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 177-186.
    3. U. Martin Persson, 2015. "The impact of biofuel demand on agricultural commodity prices: a systematic review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(5), pages 410-428, September.
    4. Huang, Hsin & von Lampe, Martin & van Tongeren, Frank, 2011. "Climate change and trade in agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 9-13.
    5. Jana Schwarz & Erik Mathijs & Miet Maertens, 2015. "Changing Patterns of Global Agri-Food Trade and the Economic Efficiency of Virtual Water Flows," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(5), pages 1-22, May.
    6. Foran, Tira & Butler, James R.A. & Williams, Liana J. & Wanjura, Wolf J. & Hall, Andy & Carter, Lucy & Carberry, Peter S., 2014. "Taking Complexity in Food Systems Seriously: An Interdisciplinary Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 85-101.
    7. Aiko Endo & Kimberly Burnett & Pedcris M. Orencio & Terukazu Kumazawa & Christopher Wada & Akira Ishii & Izumi Tsurita & Makoto Taniguchi, 2015. "Methods of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus," Working Papers 2015-12, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Globalisation; trade costs; distorted incentives; agricultural protectionism; trade policy reforms;

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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