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Globalisation's Effects on World Agricultural Trade, 1960 to 2050

Author

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  • Kym Anderson

    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

Abstract

Recent globalisation has been characterised by a decline in costs of cross-border trade in farm and other products. It has been driven primarily by the information and communication technology revolution and – in the case of farm products – by reductions in governmental distortions to agricultural production, consumption and trade. Both have boosted economic growth and reduced poverty globally, especially in Asia. The first but maybe not the second of these drivers will continue in coming decades. World food prices will depend also on whether (and if so by how much) farm productivity growth continues to outpace demand growth and to what extent diets in emerging economies move towards livestock and horticultural products at the expense of staples. Demand in turn will be driven by population and income growth, but also by crude oil prices if they remain at current historically high levels, since that will affect biofuel demand. Climate change mitigation policies and adaptation, water market developments, and market access standards particularly for transgenic foods will add to future production, price and trade uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson, 2010. "Globalisation's Effects on World Agricultural Trade, 1960 to 2050," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2010-11, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2010-11
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    File URL: http://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/publications/present/CIES_DP1011.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Kharrazi, Ali & Rovenskaya, Elena & Fath, Brian D. & Yarime, Masaru & Kraines, Steven, 2013. "Quantifying the sustainability of economic resource networks: An ecological information-based approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 177-186.
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    13. Chen, Liming & Felipe, Jesus & Kam, Andrew J.Y. & Mehta, Aashish, 2021. "Is employment globalizing?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 74-92.
    14. Calum Brown & Dave Murray-Rust & Jasper van Vliet & Shah Jamal Alam & Peter H Verburg & Mark D Rounsevell, 2014. "Experiments in Globalisation, Food Security and Land Use Decision Making," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-24, December.
    15. Yejun Choi & Ram N. Acharya & Stephen Devadoss & Madhav Regmi, 2025. "Effects of tariff and non‐tariff barriers on India‐US agricultural trade," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(1), pages 256-274, March.
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    17. Umair Kashif & Junguo Shi & Snovia Naseem & Muhammad Ayaz & Rehan Sohail Butt & Waris Ali Khan & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2023. "Do agricultural commodity prices asymmetrically affect the performance of value-added agriculture? Evidence from Pakistan using a NARDL model," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    18. Veronique Beckers & Jeroen Beckers & Matthias Vanmaercke & Etienne Van Hecke & Anton Van Rompaey & Nicolas Dendoncker, 2018. "Modelling Farm Growth and Its Impact on Agricultural Land Use: A Country Scale Application of an Agent-Based Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-19, September.
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    21. Ochnio Luiza & Rokicki Tomasz & Koszela Grzegorz & Klepacki Bogdan, 2019. "Diversification of Lamb Meat Imports in EU Countries and its Trends," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 23(4), pages 96-111, December.
    22. Jana Schwarz & Erik Mathijs & Miet Maertens, 2015. "Changing Patterns of Global Agri-Food Trade and the Economic Efficiency of Virtual Water Flows," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-22, May.
    23. Quemada, M. & Lassaletta, L. & Jensen, L.S. & Godinot, O. & Brentrup, F. & Buckley, C. & Foray, S. & Hvid, S.K. & Oenema, J. & Richards, K.G. & Oenema, O., 2020. "Exploring nitrogen indicators of farm performance among farm types across several European case studies," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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