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Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics: On the Roles of Risk and Ability

In: The Economics of Poverty Traps

Author

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  • Paulo Santos
  • Christopher B. Barrett

Abstract

This paper studies the causal mechanisms behind persistent poverty. Using original data on Boran pastoralists of southern Ethiopia, we find that heterogeneous and nonlinear wealth dynamics arise purely in adverse states of nature. In favorable states, expected herd grow is quasi-linear and universal. We further show that those with lower herding ability, as reflected in past herd growth data, converge to a unique equilibrium at a small herd size while those with higher ability exhibit multiple stable dynamic wealth equilibria.
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Suggested Citation

  • Paulo Santos & Christopher B. Barrett, 2017. "Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics: On the Roles of Risk and Ability," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Poverty Traps, pages 265-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13835
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evans, David S & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice under Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 808-827, August.
    2. Travis J. Lybbert & Christopher B. Barrett & Solomon Desta & D. Layne Coppock, 2004. "Stochastic wealth dynamics and risk management among a poor population," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 750-777, October.
    3. Dercon, Stefan, 1998. "Wealth, risk and activity choice: cattle in Western Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 1-42, February.
    4. Russell Toth, 2015. "Traps and Thresholds in Pastoralist Mobility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 315-332.
    5. De Long, J Bradford, 1988. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1138-1154, December.
    6. Lybbert, Travis J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & McPeak, John G. & Luseno, Winnie K., 2007. "Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 480-497, March.
    7. Christopher B. Barrett & Teevrat Garg & Linden McBride, 2016. "Well-Being Dynamics and Poverty Traps," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 303-327, October.
    8. Michael Carter & Christopher Barrett, 2006. "The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 178-199.
    9. repec:bla:devpol:v:22:y:2004:i::p:381-403 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kraay, Aart & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Do poverty traps exist ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6835, The World Bank.
    11. Sherlund, Shane M. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Adesina, Akinwumi A., 2002. "Smallholder technical efficiency controlling for environmental production conditions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 85-101, October.
    12. Barrett, Christopher B. & Santos, Paulo, 2014. "The impact of changing rainfall variability on resource-dependent wealth dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 48-54.
    13. Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter, 2013. "The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: Empirical and Policy Implications," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 976-990, July.
    14. Fabio Canova, 2004. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-77, February.
    15. Santos, Paulo & Barrett, Christopher B., 2011. "Persistent poverty and informal credit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 337-347, November.
    16. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-1085, December.
    17. Heckman, James J, 1991. "Identifying the Hand of the Past: Distinguishing State Dependence from Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 75-79, May.
    18. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barnett, Barry J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Skees, Jerry R., 2008. "Poverty Traps and Index-Based Risk Transfer Products," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1766-1785, October.
    2. Awa Sanou & Lenis S. O. Liverpool‐Tasie & John M. Kerr, 2020. "Threshold investment and firm viability: Evidence from commercial poultry farms in Nigeria," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 422-439, June.
    3. McKenzie, David & Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven, 2013. "A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: Do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 116-127.
    4. Clare Balboni & Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Maitreesh Ghatak & Anton Heil, 2023. "Why Do People Stay Poor?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(2), pages 785-844.
    5. Sandeep Mohapatra, 2021. "A new approach for detecting multiple‐equilibria poverty traps," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 894-909, July.
    6. Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter, 2013. "The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: Empirical and Policy Implications," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 976-990, July.
    7. MARIEKE HUYSENTRUYT & CHRISTOPHER B. BARRETT & JOHN G. McPEAK, 2009. "Understanding Declining Mobility and Inter‐household Transfers among East African Pastoralists," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 315-336, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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