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Reshaping Tomorrow : Is South Asia Ready for the Big Leap?

  • Ejaz Ghani

What will South Asia look like in 2025? The optimistic outlook is that India, which accounts for 80 per cent of the regional economic output, is headed towards double-digit growth rates. South Asia too will grow rapidly, primarily due to India. The pessimistic outlook is that, given huge transformational challenges facing the region, growth should not be taken for granted. Which of these two outlooks is likely to prevail? This is what this book is all about. It is about the future, and not the past, and how to make smart choices about the future. There is strong empirical justification in favor of the optimistic outlook. Growth will be propelled higher by young demographics, improved governance, rising middle class, and the next wave of globalization. There is democracy, for the first time since independence, in all countries in the region. Young demographics will result in nearly 20 million more people joining the labour force, every year, for the next two decades. Almost a billion people will join the ranks of the middle class. India's middle class is well-educated, enterprising, innovative, and more demanding of better services, products, and governance. The region will benefit from the new wave of globalization in services, and increased international migration and human mobility. Indeed the drivers of growth seem to have already moved from the rich world to the poor world. The room for catch-up is huge, given the big gap in average income between South Asia and the rich countries.

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This book is provided by The World Bank in its series World Bank Publications with number 16360 and published in 2011.
ISBN: 978-0-19-807502-8
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:16360
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  1. Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," IZA Discussion Papers 3475, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Basu, Kaushik & Maertens, Annemie, 2007. "The Pattern and Causes of Economic Growth in India," Working Papers 07-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  3. David Hauner, 2006. "A Fiscal Price Tag for International Reserves," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 169-195, 08.
  4. Ghani, Ejaz & Kharas, Homi, 2010. "The Service Revolution," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 14, pages 1-5, May.
  5. Ghani, Ejaz & Anand, Rahul, 2009. "How will changes in globalization impact growth in south Asia ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5079, The World Bank.
  6. Kochhar, Kalpana & Kumar, Utsav & Rajan, Raghuram & Subramanian, Arvind & Tokatlidis, Ioannis, 2006. "India's pattern of development: What happened, what follows?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 981-1019, July.
  7. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins & Arvind Virmani, 2006. "Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy," India Policy Forum, Global Economy and Development Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(1), pages 1-69.
  8. Panagariya, Arvind, 2011. "India: The Emerging Giant," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199751563, March.
  9. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Taylor, Ashley D., 2009. "Thresholds in the process of international financial integration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5149, The World Bank.
  10. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto & Artur Radziwill, 2004. "Sources for financing domestic capital - is foreign saving a viable option for developing countries?," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0288, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  11. Robert E. Baldwin, 2003. "Openness and Growth: What's the Empirical Relationship?," NBER Working Papers 9578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
  13. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Sen, Kunal, 2004. "The Determinants of Private Saving in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 491-503, March.
  14. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 2000. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern00-1, October.
  15. Frankel, Jeffrey & Cavallo, Eduardo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," Working Paper Series rwp04-038, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  16. Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Some New Perspectives on India's Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," India Policy Forum, Global Economy and Development Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 5(1), pages 125-178.
  17. James Ang, 2009. "Household Saving Behaviour in an Extended Life Cycle Model: A Comparative Study of China and India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1344-1359.
  18. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does financial globalization promote risk sharing?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 258-270, July.
  19. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
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